Impact of Climate Change on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Glaciers in Western Karakoram Region since 1990: A Case Study of Central Karakoram National Park

Abstract

Glaciers in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in Pakistan are the major source of water, irrigation, and power production for downstream regions. Global warming has induced a substantial impact on these glaciers. In the present study, Landsat images were utilized to evaluate the glaciers for the period from 1990–2020 in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP) region to further correlate with climate parameters. The results reveal that glaciers are retreating and the highest (2.33 km2) and lowest (0.18 km2) recession rates were observed for Biafo and Khurdopin glaciers, respectively. However, a minor advancement has also been observed for the period from 1990–2001. More than 80% of glacier recession was recorded between 2009–2020 because mean summer temperature increased at both Skardu and Gilgit meteorological stations, while precipitation decreased at both stations from 2005–2020. The increase in mean summer temperature and decrease in winter precipitation resulted in glacial retreat, which will lead to water scarcity in the future as well as affect the agriculture sector and hydropower production in downstream areas of the Indus River basin.