Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

Kozarcanin, Smail; Hanna, Richard; Staffell, Iain; Gross, Rob; Andresen, Gorm Bruun

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111386

Cited by 36 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Kozarcanin et al [13] find heat pumps to become more competitive with the increasing ambient temperature of the different climate change scenarios. They identify two main causes for this.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

et al. 2020

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To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 • C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-toheat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings' thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage.

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“…Kozarcanin et al [13] find heat pumps to become more competitive with the increasing ambient temperature of the different climate change scenarios. They identify two main causes for this.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kozarcanin al. [13] find that heating demand decreases by up to 42% in the most extreme global warming scenarios. They determine the cost-optimal mix of heating technologies and find that heat pumps become more cost-competitive for all the temperature-increase scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

et al. 2020

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“…Our world is facing two main problems: energy challenges and climate change [1][2][3]. The building sector, especially the residential sector, dramatically contributes to energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.…”

Section: Introduction Why Heat Pumps?mentioning

confidence: 99%

State of the Art on Heat Pumps for Residential Buildings

et al. 2021

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Heat Pumps are becoming one of the most considered mechanical conditioning equipment in our buildings. While they are popular, there appears to be quite a vast range of system types and applications in building conditioning. This paper primarily reviews the literature on heat pumps, the various types, and the consideration of design end uses. The fact that there are different energy sources for heat pumps is considered, as well as the different sinks in which energy is stored or dissipated. It is evident that advanced heat pump systems cater well to the use of renewable energy resources. Therefore, in the move towards net-zero energy building operation, the correct selection of a heat pump can help to increase self-consumption of solar PV generation and even make use of direct solar energy heating. This paper reviews the technologies for heat pump selection, application, and design for residential buildings.

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“…Solar energy utilization can provide a much-needed pathway to reduce the CO 2 emissions from district heating systems in general and in Finland [29]. There are also various other energy generation technologies that could be used to provide clean energy such as wind turbines [30], biomass [31], waste to energy [32], hydro [33] or gas [34,35]. However, solar energy has a large potential and market in the European Union [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

EU Emission Targets of 2050: Costs and CO2 Emissions Comparison of Three Different Solar and Heat Pump-Based Community-Level District Heating Systems in Nordic Conditions

et al. 2020

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In Finland, old apartments (1980s) contribute toward emissions. The objective is to reduce CO2 emissions to reach Europe’s targets of 2050. Three different centralized solar-based district heating systems integrated either with non-renovated or renovated old buildings in the community were simulated and compared against the reference city-level district heating system. The three proposed centralized systems were: Case 1: photovoltaic (PV) with a ground source heat pump (GSHP); Case 2: PV with an air-water heat pump (A2WHP); and Case 3: PV with A2WHPs, seasonal storage, and GSHPs. TRNSYS simulation software was used for dynamic simulation of the systems. Life cycle cost (LCC), CO2 emissions and purchased electricity were calculated and compared. The results show that the community-level district heating system (Case 3) outperformed Case 1, Case 2, and the city-level district heating. With non-renovated buildings, the relative emissions reduction was 83% when the reference energy system was replaced with Case 3 and the emissions reduction cost was 3.74 €/kg.CO2/yr. The relative emissions reduction was 91% when the buildings were deep renovated and integrated with Case 3 when compared to the reference system with non-renovated buildings and the emission reduction cost was 11.9 €/kg.CO2/yr. Such district heating systems could help in meeting Europe’s emissions target for 2050.

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Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

Cited by 36 publications

References 30 publications

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

State of the Art on Heat Pumps for Residential Buildings

EU Emission Targets of 2050: Costs and CO2 Emissions Comparison of Three Different Solar and Heat Pump-Based Community-Level District Heating Systems in Nordic Conditions

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