Impact of climate change on rice yield in Sri Lanka: a crop modelling approach using Agriculture Production System Simulator (APSIM)

Abstract

Climate change will have adverse effects on global food production. Potential reduction in crop productivity will be one of the biggest challenges. The objective of this study was to assess the yield fluctuation using Agriculture Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), based on climate change predictions given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) yields were simulated with increasing temperature, CO2 concentration and rainfall for three time periods; 2017 (current), 2050 and 2100. The simulations were run for medium (Bg359) and short (Bg300) duration rice varieties for 9 locations representing Wet Zone, Intermediate Zone and Dry Zone and for both Yala (March to September) and Maha (October to February) seasons. Simulation results revealed that the Wet Zone rice yield of Bg300 decreased in Maha season by 18% and 31% and the Dry Zone rice yield of Bg359 decreased in Yala season by 17%, and 42% for 2050 and 2100, respectively. Therefore, adaptation measures to overcome climate change-induced rice yield reduction in the future are essential to ensure the national food security.

Climate change impacts on crops in Sri Lanka

“…In the Maha season, rainfed and irrigated regimes both show generally negative impacts, especially in the lowlands (Anuradhapura district). For seven locations, the findings are consistent with a climate change impact study conducted with a process-based model (APSIM) for the dry, intermediate and wet zones (Amarasingha et al, 2018). In selected DZ locations, positive impacts of climate change are projected during the Maha season, while opposite behaviour is estimated for the Yala season in the same areas.…”

“…In addition to rice, most other crops such as coarse grains, legumes, fruits, vegetables and tuber crops are also adversely affected by the impacts of climate change (Titumil and Basak, 2010). Yield reductions are evident for maize (Amarasingha et al, 2018;Malaviarachchi et al, 2015) and green gram (Malaviarachchi et al, 2015(Malaviarachchi et al, , 2016 with increasing temperatures during the growing season; on the other hand, chilli yield responds positively to increasing temperatures (Abhayapala et al, 2018). Droughts and floods significantly impact fruit and vegetable production mainly in the dry zone.…”

Impact of climate change adaptation on paddy yield in dry zone Sri Lanka: A case study using agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM) model

“…In contrast, some other studies in dry zone Sri Lanka have shown that the yield of BG300 cultivar is expected to increase in the year 2050 compared to the year 2017 [11]. The impact of climate change on crop yield depends on various factors that include location, season, and management practices.…”

“…The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is one of the crop modelling platforms to simulate crop production systems under climatic and management options [8]. Previously, it has been successfully used to simulate rice production in Sri Lanka [9] [10] [11].…”

Mapping Productivity-related Spatial Characteristics in Rice-based Cropping Systems in Sri Lanka

“…The irrigation network allows dry zone farmers to cultivate rice in both wet and dry seasons either as a rainfed or an irrigated crop. However, rice cultivation in other ACZs is largely practiced as a rainfed crop with a lesser dependency on irrigation water (Amarasingha et al 2018;Nanayakkara et al 2020). Depending on the seasonal water availability, lowland rice-based cropping systems operate either as intensive rice-rice, rice-vegetable, or rice-other field crops (OFC; such as maize, mungbean, cowpea, millets, chili, soybean, or vegetables) or rice-fallow rotations (Ratnayake et al 2017).…”