Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain)

Gaitán, Emma; Monjo, Robert; Pórtoles, Javier; Pino-Otín, María Rosa

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140094

Cited by 32 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…In our study, this effect was taken into account by resolving the full soil moisture balance over the period 2006-2100 for all studied sites. Gaitán et al [34] studied future droughts in the Aragon region in northeast Spain, covering part of the Ebro valley, for two RCPs, RCP4.5 and 8.5. Their results, also based on the use of the SPI and SPEI indices, confirm the clear trend toward increasingly intense periods of droughts, especially towards the end of century for the period 2071-2100.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Droughts in Spain

Jiménez-Donaire

Giráldez

Vanwalleghem

2020

Water

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Drought is an important natural hazard that is expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a consequence of climate change. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in the temperature and precipitation regime of Spain on agricultural droughts, using novel static and dynamic drought indices. Statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the model HadGEM2-CC, under the scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), were used at a total of 374 sites for the period 2006 to 2100. The evolution of static and dynamic drought stress indices over time show clearly how drought frequency, duration and intensity increase over time. Values of static and dynamic drought indices increase over time, with more frequent occurrences of maximum index values equal to 1, especially towards the end of the century (2071–2100). Spatially, the increase occurs over almost the entire area, except in the more humid northern Spain, and in areas that are already dry at present, which are located in southeast Spain and in the Ebro valley. This study confirms the potential of static and dynamic indices for monitoring and prediction of drought stress.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Droughts in Spain

Jiménez-Donaire

Giráldez

Vanwalleghem

2020

Water

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“…Drought has a negative impact on the agriculture, service sector, and production market. It also has a large impact on human health and ecosystems [4][5][6]. Drought impacts make it one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Drought Risk Assessment Considering Resilience and Heterogeneous Vulnerability Factors: Lempa Transboundary River Basin in The Central American Dry Corridor

Khoshnazar

Corzo

Diaz

2021

JMSE

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Drought characterization and risk assessment are of great significance due to drought’s negative impact on human health, economy, and ecosystem. This paper investigates drought characterization and risk assessment in the Lempa River basin in Central America. We applied the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI) for drought characterization and drought hazard index (DHI) calculation. Although SEDI’s applicability is theoretically proven, it has been rarely applied. Drought risk is generally derived from the interactions between drought hazard (DHI) and vulnerability (DVI) indices but neglects resilience’s inherent impact. Accordingly, we propose incorporating DHI, DVI, and drought resilience index (DREI) to calculate drought risk index (DRI). Since system factors are not equally vulnerable, i.e., they are heterogeneous, our methodology applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to find the weights of the selected factors for the DVI computation. Finally, we propose a geometric mean method for DRI calculation. Results show a rise in DHI during 2006–2010 that affected DRI. We depict the applicability of SEDI via its relationship with El Nino-La Nina and El Salvador’s cereal production. This research provides a systematic drought risk assessment approach that is useful for decision-makers to allocate resources more smartly or intervene in Drought Risk Reduction (DRR). This research is also useful for those interested in socioeconomic drought.

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“…Spinoni et al (2015) and Stagge et al (2017) analyzed drought events in different regions of Europe. In particular for this specific geographical context, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Mediterranean Basin is seen as a very vulnerable environment (IPCC, 2014), and a number of regional-scale drought analyses have indeed been performed in different regions of this area (Cook et al, 2016;Gouveia et al, 2017;Ruffault et al, 2018;Caloiero et al, 2019;Yves et al, 2020). At the global scale, south America, the Sahel, the Congo River Basin and northeastern China, besides the Mediterranean Basin, were the areas the most frequently affected by severe droughts (Spinoni et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this context, historical in situ long-term measurements are crucial for understanding historical drought conditions as they allow us to learn about how a specific region has been affected by precipitation shortage periods in the past, how severe the response was and how quickly it took to recover from drought conditions (Bonaccorso and Aronica, 2016;Marini et al, 2019). This information is important to set drought forecasting strategies which could help in preparedness actions, planning mitigation and adaptation strategies to projected climate change (Peres et al, 2020;Gaitán et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the widely used approach to define drought conditions and persistence consists in the use of mathematical indices, known as drought indicators, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965), the Crop Moisture Index (CMI) (Palmer, 1968), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (Rouse et al, 1974), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al, 1993;Ganguli and Reddy, 2014), the Drought Recognition Index (RDI) (Tsakiris and Vangelis, 2005) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2010). In particular the SPI, despite the inherent limitations, was used in several studies to investigate drought characteristics across the world (Mishra and Singh, 2010;Van Loon, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of centennial (1918–2019) drought features in the Campania region by historical in situ measurements (southern Italy)

Longobardi

Boulariah

Villani

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Drought is a sustained period of below-normal water availability. It is a recurring and worldwide phenomenon, but the Mediterranean Basin is seen as a very vulnerable environment in this perspective, and understanding historical drought conditions in this area is necessary to plan mitigation strategies to further face future climate change impacts. The current research was aimed at the description of drought conditions and evolution for the Campania region (southern Italy), assessed by the analysis of an in situ measurement database which covers a centennial period from 1918 to 2019. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series were reconstructed for different accumulation timescales (from 3 to 48 months) and the modified Mann–Kendall and Sen's tests were applied to identify SPI changes over time. SPI time series were mostly affected by a negative trend, significant for a very large area of the region, particularly evident for the accumulation scales longer than 12 months. Mean drought duration (MDD), severity (MDS) and peak (MDP) were furthermore investigated for both moderate (SPI ≤ −1) and extremely severe conditions (SPI ≤ −2). The accumulation scale affected the drought features, with longer duration and larger severity associated with the larger accumulation scales. Drought characteristics spatial patterns were not congruent for the different SPI timescales: if duration and severity were larger in the southern areas, peaks appeared mostly severe in the northern areas of the region. Extremely severe events were featured by shorter durations and larger severity compared to the moderate drought events but were very less frequent (over 75 % less then) and did not appear to be focused on specific areas of the region.

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Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain)

Cited by 32 publications

References 92 publications

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Droughts in Spain

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Droughts in Spain

Spatiotemporal Drought Risk Assessment Considering Resilience and Heterogeneous Vulnerability Factors: Lempa Transboundary River Basin in The Central American Dry Corridor

Assessment of centennial (1918–2019) drought features in the Campania region by historical in situ measurements (southern Italy)

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