Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling

Dehn, Martin; Bürger, Gerd; Buma, Jelle; Gasparetto, Paolo

doi:10.1016/s0013-7952(99)00123-4

Cited by 106 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This was found to give good results in the reproduction of 20-50 year return values of central European surface temperature (Kyselý, 2002). The more sophisticated 'expanded downscaling' approach, a variant of canonical correlation analysis (CCA), was developed by Bürger (1996) and has been used by Huth (1999); Dehn et al (2000) and Müller-Wohlfeil et al (2000). A comparison of the three methods notes that each presents different problems (Bürger and Chen, 2005).…”

Section: Statistical Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Fowler

Blenkinsop

Tebaldi

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

1,903

1,491

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Abstract:There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept; new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.Consideration is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction which may offer the most potential for advancement within the 'downscaling for hydrological impacts' community, such as probabilistic modelling, pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there is still little consideration given to applied research; how the results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding of uncertainties within the modelling system.

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Section: Statistical Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Fowler

Blenkinsop

Tebaldi

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

1,903

1,491

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An inverse evolution would be expected in those areas in which recharge decreases. The relationships between all the factors which determine the stability of a slope, such as its geological set up, rock resistance, morphological situation, groundwater recharge, neutral pressure distribution and the quality of the climatic scenarios, are complex and spatially variable so that it is difficult to draw general conclusions, and research on the subject is relatively scarce (Dehn & Buma 1999;Dikau & Schrott 1999;Dehn et al 2000;Malet et al 2005;Dixon & Brook 2007). In an area around Bonn (Germany) a process-based, spatial and temporal model for groundwater variations and slope stability indicates that the most unstable conditions occurred during the transition from the more humid Little Ice Age to a dryer, recent climate (Schmidt & Dikau 2004).…”

Section: Impacts and Adaptation: Some Topics On Which To Focus Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and groundwater: a short review

Dragoni

Sukhija

2008

174

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There is a general consensus that climate change is an ongoing phenomenon. This will inevitably bring about numerous environmental problems, including alterations to the hydrological cycle, which is already heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity. The available climate scenarios indicate areas where rainfall may increase or diminish, but the final outcome with respect to man and environment will, generally, be detrimental. Groundwater will be vital to alleviate some of the worst drought situations. The paper analyses the main methods for studying the relationships between climate change and groundwater, and presents the main areas in which hydrogeological research should focus in order to mitigate the likely impacts.

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“…Growth of urban areas and expanded land use have increased the vulnerability of societies to landslides (Boullé et al 1997;Smyth & Royle 2000). Moreover, the impact of climate change may result in higher frequencies of such events in the future (Dehn et al 2000;Dixon & Brook 2007). Past research has identified different landslide mechanisms and many controls on their initiation and development (e.g.…”

Section: [End Of Abstract]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical aerial photographs for landslide assessment: two case histories

Walstra

Dixon

Chandler

2007

QJEGH

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Abbreviated title:Aerial photographs for landslide assessment [Abstract] This paper demonstrates the value of historical aerial photographs for assessing long-term landslide evolution. The study focussed on two case histories, the Mam Tor and East Pentwyn landslides. In both case histories the variety of data was explored, that could be derived relatively easily using an ordinary PC desktop, commercially available software and commonly available photographic material. The techniques to unlock qualitative and quantitative data captured in the photographic archive were based on the principles of aerial photo-interpretation and photogrammetry. The created products comprised geomorphological maps, automatically derived elevation models (DEMs), displacement vectors and animations.The measured horizontal displacements of the Mam Tor landslide ranged from 0.09-0.74 m/yr between 1953 and 1999, which was verified by independent survey data. Moreover, the observed displacement patterns were consistent with photo-interpreted geomorphological information. The photogrammetric measurements from the East Pentwyn landslide (horizontal displacements up to 6 m/yr between 1971 and 1973) also showed a striking resemblance to independent data. In both case histories, the vertical accuracy was insufficient for detecting significant elevation changes. Nevertheless, DEMs proved to be a powerful tool for visualisation. Overall, the results in this study validated the techniques used and strongly encourage the use of historical photographic material in landslide studies. [End of abstract]Landslides include a range of slope movements, representing a widespread geological hazard. Yearly, extreme landslide disasters worldwide pose threats to people, infrastructure and cause significant economical losses. Growth of urban areas and expanded land use have increased the vulnerability of societies to landslides (Boullé et al. 1997;Smyth & Royle 2000). Moreover, the impact of climate change may result in higher frequencies of such events in the future (Dehn et al. 2000;Dixon & Brook 2007). Past research has identified different landslide mechanisms and many controls on their initiation and development (e.g. Varnes 1978;Crozier 1986). These controls are very complex and relate to climatic variables and characteristics of the slope, such as material, geological and hydrological conditions and vegetation cover. A full understanding of their interrelationships requires detailed and extensive monitoring of environmental factors and associated landform changes. Usually, long climate data records are available, whereas obtaining accurate historical spatial data quantifying landform change is a rather more challenging task.A combination of multi-temporal mapping of surface features and monitoring of landslide displacements may result in better understanding of their underlying mechanisms. There are sophisticated tools available for monitoring landslide movements. Traditional instruments include inclinometers, tiltmeters, extensometers and land surveyi...

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Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling

Cited by 106 publications

References 11 publications

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Climate change and groundwater: a short review

Historical aerial photographs for landslide assessment: two case histories

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