Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

Kozarcanin, Smail; Hanna, Richard; Staffell, Iain; Gross, Rob; Andresen, Gorm Bruun

doi:10.48550/arxiv.1907.04067

Cited by 2 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Kozarcanin et al [13] find heat pumps to become more competitive with the increasing ambient temperature of the different climate change scenarios. They identify two main causes for this.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kozarcanin PyPSA python for power system analysis VRES variable renewable energy sources al. [13] find that heating demand decreases by up to 42% in the most extreme global warming scenarios. They determine the cost-optimal mix of heating technologies and find that heat pumps become more cost-competitive for all the temperature-increase scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

et al. 2020

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To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 • C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-toheat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings' thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage.

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“…Kozarcanin et al [13] find heat pumps to become more competitive with the increasing ambient temperature of the different climate change scenarios. They identify two main causes for this.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

et al. 2020

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“…Installation Cost [e/kW] 100 [93,148] 100 [80,140] 50 [30,70] 75 [50,83] 304 [240,480] 420 [350, 560]…”

Section: Unperturbed Pricing Schemementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous work has shown that the variable renewable power production and power consumption change by up to 5% compared to historical levels as a consequence of a changing climate [132]. On the other hand, climate change is expected to strongly influence the heating sector via the temperature dependent heat demand [240], and the final systems may be quite different in different climates. With this in mind, a techno-economic cost optimisation is applied for the capacity investments and dispatch of energy producing technologies for each climatic pathway through a new power system optimisation framework for simulating and optimising modern power systems, PyPSA, [241].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each node is supplied with a carefully generated 3-hourly, national aggregated, time series on the wind and solar power potential, electricity and heat consumption covering the years from 2000 to 2100. The time series have been generated on the grounds of cutting edge climate change affected weather data [132,240,179]. Weather data has been supplied from fours regional climate models, RCM, downscaling five CMIP5 global climate models [61,180], GCM, forced by the different climatic pathways provided by the IPCC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Climate Change on European Electricity and Heating Systems

Kozarcanin¹

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XIfruitful discussions throughout the project period.I would like to thank Professor Dirk Witthaut for assessing the mid-term progress of this project, Professor Martin Greiner and Dr. Tom Brown for their help and assistance. Thanks to Heidi Søndergaard and Mejrema Zvonic for their graphical inputs and Mette Stig Hansen for her writing inputs.Thanks to you my beloved wife for lending me out to my supervisor for three years and thank you for understanding me and the time I had to put into this doctoral degree. Finally, I would like to thank my family without whose love, support and understanding I could never have finished this project.

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Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe

Cited by 2 publications

References 9 publications

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe

Impacts of Climate Change on European Electricity and Heating Systems

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