Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River

Andersson, Lotta; Wilk, Julie; Todd, Martin C.; Hughes, Denis A.; Earle, Anton; Kniveton, Dominic; Layberry, Russel; Savenije, Hubert

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.039

Cited by 116 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Many researchers have done immense researches by using multi model projection such as Van Oldenborgh et al, Chikamoto et al, Kunstmann et al, Serrat-Capdevila et al, Andersson et al, and etc. [1][2][3][4][5].…”

Section: Climate Change and Long Term Variation Of Rivers Flow: A Formentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Applying several GCMs is a common accepted method in hydro-climatic researches; for example this method was used by Serrat-Capdevila et al to model climate change impacts on the riparian system hydrology of San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora) [4]. Furthermore Andersson et al modeled Impacts of climate change on Okavango River (shared by Angola, Namibia and Botswana) by applying these methods [5]. Generating scenarios for exploring a probability space is an old tradition in decision-making in water and energy context [8][9][10][11].…”

Section: Probability Space and Gcm-scenario Combinationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Maknoon¹,

Kazem²,

Hasanzadeh³

2012

JWARP

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Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990's, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.

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Section: Climate Change and Long Term Variation Of Rivers Flow: A Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probability Space and Gcm-scenario Combinationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Maknoon¹,

Kazem²,

Hasanzadeh³

2012

JWARP

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“…This has spurred many hydrological climate change impact studies (e.g. Booij, 2005;Xu et al, 2005;Andersson et al, 2006;and Jiang et al, 2007). However, hydrological impact studies ought to receive more attention as there are still grey areas related to the interfacing of climate and hydrological models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

Taye

Ntegeka

Ogiramoi

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

189

125

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Abstract. The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo), considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

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“…A number of studies [17][18][19] have suggested that it is necessary to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on water resources in virtue of distributed hydrological models and climate projected data. For instance, García Ruiz et al [20] illustrated the trend of streamflow decline in the Mediterranean area by modeling and analyzing river regime characteristics and reservoir inflow; Andersson et al [21] studied the impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns using a Pitman hydrological model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

Zhang

2016

Water

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Abstract:The Songhua River Basin (SRB) in Northeast China is one of the areas most sensitive to global climate change because of its high-latitude location. In this study, we conducted a modeling assessment on the potential change of water resources in this region for the coming three decades using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, we calibrated and validated the model with historical streamflow records in this basin. Then, we applied the calibrated model for the period from 2020 to 2049 with the projected and downscaled climatic data under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study results show: (1) The SWAT model performed very well for both the calibration and validation periods in the SRB; (2) The projected temperatures showed a steady, significant increase across the SRB under both scenarios, especially in two sub-basins, the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) and the Lower SRB (LSRB). With regard to precipitation, both scenarios showed a decreasing trend in the NRB and LSRB but an increasing trend in the Upper Songhua River Basin (USRB); and (3), generally, the hydrologic modeling suggested a decreasing trend of streamflow for 2020-2049. Compared to baseline conditions , the streamflow in the NRB and LSRB would decrease by 20.3%-37.8%, while streamflow in the USRB would experience an increase of 9.68%-17.7%. These findings provide relevant insights into future surface water resources, and such information can be helpful for resource managers and policymakers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies in the face of climate change.

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Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River

Cited by 116 publications

References 20 publications

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Songhua River Basin

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