Impact of climate and land cover changes on the potential distribution of four endemic salamanders in Mexico

Vargas-Jaimes, Jossye; González-Fernández, Andrea; Torres‐Romero, Erik Joaquín; Bolom-Huet, René; Manjarrez, Javier; Merino, Luis Moreno; Pacheco, Xareni P.; Garrido-Garduño, Tania; Chávez, Cuauhtémoc; Sunny, Armando

doi:10.1016/j.jnc.2021.126066

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Likewise, the Sierra de las Cruces and Corredor Biológico Chichinautzin were very important areas in terms of connectivity for C. biserialis and C. lineata. Similar results were found for other species (Vargas-Jaimes et al 2021). However, the greatest loss of Abies and Pinus forest occurred between 2011 and 2014 in the Corredor Biológico Chichinautzin, and especially in Lagunas de Zempoala, according to our results regarding land-use change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…As predicted, C. biserialis, C. lineata, and C. nasus were restricted by maximum and minimum temperatures as they are adapted to high elevations and temperate semi-cold climates. Similar results have been described for other vertebrate species occurring at high elevations (González-Fernández et al 2018;Sunny et al 2019;Vargas-Jaimes et al 2021). Climate is a main de ning factor for species distribution (Fourcade et al 2018;Bolom-Huet et al 2022;González-Fernández et al 2022) and there is evidence that climate alteration produces changes and reductions in habitable regions for snakes, in addition to modi cations in dispersal, growth, survival, and tness (Rugiero et al 2013;Combrink et al 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

“…The distance to urban settlements was not included as a variable in the models because this can generate a bias, as these areas are more easily accessed by observers (Araujo and Guisan 2006). Instead, present (from the present distribution maps) and future urban areas (from the future distribution maps) were designated as areas of zero habitat suitability (González-Fernández et al 2018;Vargas-Jaimes et al 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Sunny

Manjarrez

Caballero‐Viñas

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Anthropogenic changes, such as land use and climate change, are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for reptiles, the second most endangered vertebrate class worldwide. Species distribution modelling was applied to assess how expected scenarios of future climate and land cover change might influence the geographic distribution and habitat connectivity of three Conopsisearthsnakes endemic to Mexico: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith, 1942),Conopsis lineata (Kennicott, 1859), and Conopsis nasus (Günther, 1858). In order to do this, two climate models were used, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP), with the Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 85 and the Maxent modelling method in ENMeval. The most important environmental variables affecting the distribution of the target species, as well as the environmental niche overlap between them, were also determined. C. biserialis, C. lineata, and C. nasus were found to be restricted by maximum and minimum temperatures as they are adapted to high elevations and temperate semi-cold climates; therefore, climate was a main determining factor for species distribution. As expected, all Conopsis species were predicted to face a reduction in their potential distribution with C. lineata possibly losing approximately 48.5% and C. biserialislosing 28.7%. However, the models were inconsistent in determining which species would suffer the biggest reduction in distribution in the future. Likewise, a reduction in connectivity was found for the three species of Conopsis, while the Sierra de las Cruces and Corredor Biológico Chichinautzin were determined as very important areas in terms of connectivity. Unfortunately, great losses of Abies and Pinus forests occurred in these areas between 2011 and 2014, along with an increase in the agricultural activity that compromises the populations of these species when intensively managed. Most of the potential distribution of these species are found in close proximity to agriculture and outside of protected areas, which is why it is extremely important to create protected areas for reptile species that live in these parts of central Mexico.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Sunny

Manjarrez

Caballero‐Viñas

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) are practical tools to predict the impacts of climate and land use changes on species distribution and identify their future distribution (Chowdhury et al, 2021;Gonçalves et al, 2021;Mojtaba Asgharzadeh, 2022;Vargas-Jaimes et al, 2021), document changes in species composition (Buras and Menzel, 2019;Maiorano et al, 2011) by correlating species occurrence records to climatic variables (Guisan et al, 2017). Moreover, HSMs can be used to predict changes in distribution and interaction of species and their host or prey and predator in changing climate (Brambilla et al, 2020;Gómez-Ruiz and Lacher Jr, 2019;Grünig et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying high snakebite risk area under climate change: Implications for community education and antivenom distribution

Yousefi

Yousefkhani

Grünig

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Snakebite is a global health problem and yearly snakebites have been estimated up to 5 million leading to about 100,000 deaths each year. While those numbers are showing that snakebite is one of the largest risks from wildlife, little is known about venomous snake distribution, spatial variation in snakebite risk, potential changes in snakebite risk pattern due to climate change, and vulnerable human population. As a consequence, management and prevention of snakebite is hampered by this lack of information. Previous studies suggest that habitat suitability models are effective tools in predicting snakebite risk areas under current and future climate and identifying vulnerable human population. Here we used an ensemble approach of five different habitat suitability modeling algorithms for 10 medically important venomous snakes to quantify snakebite risk pattern, map snakebite hotspots, calculate community composition changes and changes in vulnerability to snakebite in Iran under current and future climate (years 2041–2070 and 2071–2100). We identified areas with high snakebite risk in Iran and showed that snakebite risk will increase in some parts of the country. We also found mountainous areas (Zagros, Alborz, Kopet-Dagh mountains) will experience highest changes in species composition. We underline that in order to improve snakebite management, areas which were identified with high snakebite risk in Iran need to be prioritized for the distribution of antivenom medication and awareness rising programs among vulnerable human population.

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“…En el periodo 2005-2010 se estimaron pérdidas anuales de 155 mil ha en promedio (CONAFOR, 2014), en la FVT entre 2002 y 2011, hubo un aumento de casi 16,000 km 2 en agricultura y alrededor de 5.000 km 2 en áreas urbanas, en cambio, se produjo una reducción en el área de los bosques de pino perdiéndose 2682.69 km 2 ; sin embargo, entre 2011 y 2014 aumentó la perdida de pino a 19,084 km 2 , y la de encino se registró en 2514.08 km 2 . Finalmente, los bosques de oyamel se habían mantenido estables con un ligero incremento de 34.12 km 2 entre 2002 y 2011; sin embargo, entre 2011 y 2014 se perdieron 70.37 km 2 (González-Fernández et al, 2018;Vargas-Jaimes et al, 2021) en el Corredor Biológico Chichinautzin, especialmente en las Lagunas de Zempoala.…”

Section: Deforestación E Introducción De Especies Exóticasunclassified

Análisis de la categoría de riesgo de los ajolotes de arroyos de alta montaña (Caudata: Ambystoma)

Heredia-Bobadilla

Sunny

2021

AZM

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Los ajolotes de arroyos de alta montaña (Ambystoma), forman parte de especies vulnerables debido a la naturaleza de su distribución, la cual se restringe a pequeños arroyos permanentes en las montañas de la Faja Volcánica Transmexicana; estas especies, además, se conforman por poblaciones pequeñas y aisladas, lo cual incrementa su vulnerabilidad. En este trabajo se analizan las amenazas potenciales para Ambystoma rivulare, A. altamirani y A. leorae, y con base en los criterios propuestos por la SEMARNAT y el Puntaje de Vulnerabilidad Ambiental desarrollado por Wilson y McCranie (2003), se argumenta que el estado de conservación de estas especies puede cambiarse a un nivel de mayor protección.

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Impact of climate and land cover changes on the potential distribution of four endemic salamanders in Mexico

Cited by 18 publications

References 78 publications

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three Earthsnakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther, 1858) in central Mexico.

Identifying high snakebite risk area under climate change: Implications for community education and antivenom distribution

Análisis de la categoría de riesgo de los ajolotes de arroyos de alta montaña (Caudata: Ambystoma)

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