Impact of climate and host availability on future distribution of Colorado potato beetle

Abstract

Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB) is a devastating invasive pest of potato both in its native North America and now across Eurasia. It also damages eggplant, tomato and feeds on several wild species in the Solanaceae, such as S. eleagnifolium and S. rostratum Dunal (SR). Since first categorized as a pest in 1864, CPB has spread rapidly across North America, Europe and Asia. In light of its invasiveness and economic importance, it is necessary to study how climate change and host availability may alter the distribution of the CPB. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were used to anticipate global range expansion as influenced by environmental conditions, and by the possibility of cooperative invasion of CPB and its wild host SR. The results indicate that both CPB and SR can occupy warm areas of North America, South Africa, Europe, China, and Australia. Future climate conditions may promote CPB expansion into northern regions and SR into the circumpolar latitudes. The existing range and continued spread of SR may also assist the global expansion of CPB. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of global climate change and host availability on its potential global distribution.

The efficacy of environmentally acceptable products for the control of major potato pests and diseases

“…Due to its pronounced resistance to insecticides (Alyokhin et al, 2008;Rinkevich et al, 2012;Scott et al, 2014) and climate change, the Colorado potato beetle (CPB) is still one of the most important potato pests, although it has been almost 100 years since its first occurrence in Europe (Wang et al, 2017). Furthermore, wireworms are also important potato pests in Europe.…”

Peer Review #1 of "Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model (v0.1)"

“…Therefore, ROC curves are widely used in the evaluation of MaxEnt models. For example, Wang et al (2017b) used ROC curves to evaluate the predictive effect of the MaxEnt model in terms of suitable habitats for the Colorado potato beetle at a global scale; Han et al (2015) used ROC curves to determine the accuracy of niche models in predicting suitable habitats for Bursaphelenchus xylophilus Steiner & Bohrer (Tylenchida Thorne: Sphelenchoidae) in China. Therefore, the ROC curve is used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the MaxEnt model.…”

Modelling the Putative Ancient Distribution of the Coastal Rock Pool MosquitoAedes togoi

“…Species distribution modeling, a type of environmental niche modeling, is a useful approach to estimate the suitability of habitat for a species in geographic areas it is not known to occupy or to estimate the changes in suitability of habitat for a species with environmental change over time (Wiens et al 2009, Warren and Seifert 2011, Herrando-Moraira et al 2019. Maximum entropy niche modelling (Maxent) is a commonly used approach in species distribution modelling (Rochlin et al 2013, Melaun et al 2015, Cunze et al 2016, Wang et al 2017, Peach et al 2019, Rochlin 2019. Maxent is an effective open-source machine-learning algorithm that uses presenceonly data to model habitat suitability (Elith et al 2006, Merow et al 2013, West et al 2016, Ashraf et al 2017 and is frequently used to predict shifts in distribution of suitable habitat due to climate change (Rochlin et al 2013, Wang et al 2017, Peach et al 2019) and putative distributions for species that become invasive in new regions (West et al 2016, Peach et al 2019, Rochlin 2019.…”

“…Maximum entropy niche modelling (Maxent) is a commonly used approach in species distribution modelling (Rochlin et al 2013, Melaun et al 2015, Cunze et al 2016, Wang et al 2017, Peach et al 2019, Rochlin 2019. Maxent is an effective open-source machine-learning algorithm that uses presenceonly data to model habitat suitability (Elith et al 2006, Merow et al 2013, West et al 2016, Ashraf et al 2017 and is frequently used to predict shifts in distribution of suitable habitat due to climate change (Rochlin et al 2013, Wang et al 2017, Peach et al 2019) and putative distributions for species that become invasive in new regions (West et al 2016, Peach et al 2019, Rochlin 2019. Maxent modelling has also be applied to predict suitable habitat for a species under past climate conditions (Ye et al 2014), including the paleodistribution of mosquitoes (Porretta et al 2012).…”