Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use on the Future Streamflow Fluctuation: Case Study Merangin Tembesi Watershed, Jambi Province, Indonesia

Abstract

Beside land use change, future climate change potentially alters streamflow fluctuation of a river basin in Indonesia. We investigated relative impact of changes in climate and land use on the streamflow fluctuation of a watershed in Jambi Province, Indonesia for future condition (2025). To account for the climate change, we simulated future rainfall and temperature scenarios using the downscaled rainfall and mean surface temperature of 24 CMIP5 GCM outputs with moderate scenario of RCP4.5. We used distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) to simulate relative impact of changes in climate and land use on the future streamflow fluctuation. The SWAT model performed well with the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values of 0.80-0.85 (calibration) and 0.84-0.86 (validation). The results indicated that the climate change caused 32% decrease of the minimum discharge during dry season and 96% increase of the maximum peak discharge during rainy season. Meanwhile, the land use change led to 40% decrease of the minimum discharge in the dry season and 65% increase of the maximum peak discharge in wet season. Both changes indicated significant impact on the extreme events such as discharge and minimum discharge. The impact of the climate change on the increased peak discharge is more significant compared to that of the land use change. Meanwhile, the impact of the land use change on the minimum discharge is more significant compared to that of the climate change. The results of this study pointed out that both climate and land use changes potentially become crucial factors for the future discharge fluctuation in Indonesia.

Impact of Land Use and Climate Changes on Flood Inundation Areas in the Lower Cimanuk Watershed, West Java Province

“…The increase in the coverage of flood inundation areas was mainly caused by factors related to land degradation, such as lower soil infiltration and increased runoff due to the decrease of forest area, both upstream and downstream of the watershed. A low infiltration rate will increase the surface runoff component and, in turn, will also increase the peak discharge (Tarigan and Faqih, 2019). The simulation results of this model show the strong impact of land use change on the hydrological process in the Lower Cimanuk Watershed.…”

“…They found that the inundation areas under future climates are expected to be larger than those produced by the present climate events. In other studies, the impacts of both climate and land use changes were shown to cause an increase in the maximum peak discharge in the Merangin Tembesi Watershed (Tarigan and Faqih, 2019) as well as an increase in runoff and a decline in base flow contribution to annual streamflow in the Cimanuk Watershed (Ridwansyah et al, 2020).…”

“…Land use/cover change and climate variability/change are two major factors controlling streamflow fluctuation and increased rainfall (Boer and Faqih, 2004;Naylor et al, 2007;Berihun et al, 2019;Tarigan and Faqih, 2019). Land cover and use changes have been widely recognized to pose a threat to water reservoirs and watershed management by increasing the intensity of surface runoff (Chow et al, 1988;Woldemichael et al, 2012;Yigzaw and Hossain, 2016).…”

Implementasi Rencana Induk Pengembangan Kawasan Sentul City Terhadap Limpasan Puncak dan Konstribusi Banjir

“…Meningkatnya aliran permukaan, naiknya urbanisasi serta penebangan hutan secara sembarangan merupakan faktor terpenting yang berkontribusi terhadap meningkatnya limpasan di wilayah DAS di utara Iran, dan pengembangan daerah pemukiman baru menyebabkan peningkatan paling signifikan pada limpasan (Zare et al, 2016). Perubahan terhadap elemen meteorologi dan sifat fisik daerah akan berdampak terhadap naik turunnya limpasan dan debit, sebagaimana hasil riset di daerah aliran sungai (DAS) Merangin Tembesi Jambi, bahwa perubahan LU menyebabkan penurunan 40% dari debit minimum di musim kemarau dan 65% peningkatan debit puncak maksimum di musim hujan (Tarigan & Faqih, 2019). Perubahan LU dari hutan ke non hutan dalam skala besar menyebabkan kerusakan lingkungan dan mengurangi fungsi hidrologis DAS Ciliwung-Bogor (Nuraidaa, Rachman, & Baskoro, 2016).…”

Determinants of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation strategies: An Application of Protection Motivation Theory

“…The effect of climate change is heightened in sub-Saharan Africa partly due to low coping capabilities, poor preparedness and weak institutional capacity of detecting early warning (Debela et al, 2015). Consequently, increasing global warming easily affects the rainfall pattern, causes flooding, and leads to drought thereby contributing to production failure and relate to humanitarian crisis in the region (Kibue et al, 2015).In the tropical countries, in addition to changing land use pattern, climate change leads to significant water discharge fluctuation which in turn affects the livelihood of a huge population (Tarigan & Faqih, 2019).…”