Objective
To assess the stability of metabolic status and BMI status, and their relative contribution to risk of diabetes, cardiovascular events, and mortality.
Methods
14,685 participants from ARIC, and 4,990 from CARDIA. We defined people with healthy obesity (HO) as meeting all 3 indices of blood pressure, blood glucose, and blood lipids. People with unhealthy obesity crossed the risk threshold for all 3 criteria.
Results
In both healthy and unhealthy subgroups, risks for CHD, stroke, and mortality were comparable among BMI status during a mean 18.7-year follow-up. When compared with HO, hazard ratios were increased for diabetes (5.56, 95% CI 4.12–7.48), CHD (5.60, CI 3.14–9.98), stroke (4.84, CI 2.13–10.97), and mortality (2.6, CI 1.88–3.61) in people with unhealthy obesity. BMI only moderately increased the risks for diabetes among healthy subjects. In CARDIA over 20 years, 17.5 % of lean subjects and 67.3% of overweight subjects at baseline became obese during follow-up. Despite rising BMI, metabolic status remained relatively stable.
Conclusions
Metabolic status is relatively stable despite rising BMI. HO had lower risks for diabetes, CHD, stroke, and mortality than unhealthy subjects, but increased diabetes risks than healthy lean people. Cardiometabolic risk factors confer much higher risk than obesity per se.