Impact of bicycle highways on commuter mode choice: A scenario analysis

Abstract

The Dutch concept of ‘bicycle highways’ is increasingly being adopted by urban planners owing to rising environmental and health consciousness, and the growing popularity of electric bicycles. Bicycle highways differ from other types of cycling infrastructure in that they avoid intersections with motorised traffic, and are wide enough to allow for safe overtaking, thereby increasing cycling speeds. While many studies investigate the feasibility of constructing bicycle highways, few explore their effect on users’ travel preferences. In this context, our study aims to assess the potential impact of bicycle highways on commuter mode choice. We built a discrete choice model based on individual commute data from a national household travel survey, Mobilität in Deutschland 2008. The model was estimated in a logit modelling framework using Biogeme. We estimated multinomial logit and nested logit models and found nested logit to be more appropriate. The model estimates were then applied to forecast mode shares in scenarios with the pilot bicycle highway proposed in the Munich region. The variation in mode shares across scenarios with increasing average cycling speeds was analysed in areas with varying proximity to the infrastructure. The results suggest that bicycle highways reduce motorised travel and increase cycling. The effect is stronger as proximity to the corridor increases. The analysis helps to quantify the potential impact of bicycle highways on commuter mode choice even without considering further benefits beyond travel time reductions, such as increased safety, convenience, comfort, and reduced risks due to fewer interactions with motorised traffic.

Traffic Simulation Analysis of Bicycle Highways in Urban Areas

“…Finally, another study quantifies the impacts on mode share for bicycle highways using a discrete choice model for the planned bicycle highway network of the Munich Metropolitan Region. The study predicts only a modest shift in trips to bicycle after the implementation of the bicycle highway, indicating that the introduction of a bicycle highway network alone cannot lead to a major shift in bicycle use [8].…”

“…In Germany, there are several bicycle highway projects in different stages of development. These include but are not limited to the Bicycle Highways Ruhr (RS1) [18], Euregio [19], the bicycle highway Ostwestfalen-Lippe (OWL) [20], the bicycle highway connecting Köln and Frechen [21], and the bicycle highway network of Munich [8].…”

“…Most of the scientific research examines the user experience and evaluates the effects from the introduction of bicycle highways [4][5][6][7][8][9]. These primarily include effects on bicycle share, demand induction, safety, health benefits, and user satisfaction.…”

A cluster analysis of cyclists in Europe: common patterns, behaviours, and attitudes

“…Segmenting cyclists based on cycling trip purpose helped to shed light on habits and patterns of cyclists and to understand that recreation or sport seems more relevant than commuting as cycling trip purpose (Burbidge and Goulias 2009;Moudon et al 2005;Sener et al 2009). Modal split is often considered in research when it comes to assessing mobility patterns and changes over time or the effectiveness of interventions in promoting a modal shift towards active mobility (Barberan and Monzon 2016;Rayaprolu et al 2018;Song et al 2017). It has proven to be a relevant factor for identifying bicycle use habits.…”

Agent-Based Simulation to Improve Policy Sensitivity of Trip-Based Models

“…e nested logit models were then estimated in an incremental manner to ensure a minimum 95% confidence level while avoiding significant correlations of independent variables. Sample estimation results for the mode choice model were published by Rayaprolu et al [41].…”