Impact of aerosol indirect effect on surface temperature over East Asia

Huang, Yan; Dickinson, Robert E.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0504428103

Cited by 130 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The aerosols can affect local convective motion through their direct and indirect reduction of short-wave solar radiation, and they can also affect cloudiness and the auto-conversion from cloud water into rainwater by changing cloud condensation nuclei (Xu 2001;Menon et al 2002;Qian et al 2003;Huang et al 2006), and the aerosol indirect effects may dominant over that of direct effects (Qian and Giorgi 1999). Furthermore, decadal variations associated the North Atlantic Oscillation is also linked to recent climate changes over East Asia through atmospheric teleconnection Li et al 2005;Xin et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000

et al. 2008

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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and summer rainfall over East China have experienced large decadal changes during the latter half of the 20th century. To investigate the potential causes behind these changes, a series of simulations using the national center for atmospheric research (NCAR) community atmospheric model version 3 (CAM3) and the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric model version 2.1 (AM2.1) are analyzed. These simulations are forced separately with different historical forcing, namely tropical sea surface temperature (SSTs), global SSTs, greenhouse gases plus aerosols, and a combination of global SSTs and greenhouse gases plus aerosols. This study focuses on the relative roles of these individual forcings in causing the observed monsoon and rainfall changes over East Asia during 1950-2000. The simulations from both models show that the SST forcing, primarily from the Tropics, is able to induce most of the observed weakening of the EASM circulation, while the greenhouse gas plus (direct) aerosol forcing increases the land-sea thermal contrast and thus enhances the EASM circulation. The results suggest that the recent warming in the Tropics, especially the warming associated with the tropical interdecadal variability centered over the central and eastern Pacific, is a primary cause for the weakening of the EASM since the late 1970s. However, a realistic simulation of the relatively small-scale rainfall change pattern over East China remains a challenge for the global models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000

et al. 2008

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“…Aerosols may have a small effect on DTR by reflecting solar radiation but can have larger effects through their modification of cloud properties and hence reduction of surface heating. Their nighttime effect of increased cloud cover, hence surface warming, may further increase T min and hence reduce DTR (14).…”

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confidence: 99%

Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region: Application to the Sahel

Zhou

Dickinson

Tian

et al. 2007

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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161

130

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Increased clouds and precipitation normally decrease the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and thus have commonly been offered as explanation for the trend of reduced DTR observed for many land areas over the last several decades. Observations show, however, that the DTR was reduced most in dry regions and especially in the West African Sahel during a period of unprecedented drought. Furthermore, the negative trend of DTR in the Sahel appears to have stopped and may have reversed after the rainfall began to recover. This study develops a hypothesis with climate model sensitivity studies showing that either a reduction in vegetation cover or a reduction in soil emissivity would reduce the DTR by increasing nighttime temperature through increased soil heating and reduced outgoing longwave radiation. Consistent with empirical analyses of observational data, our results suggest that vegetation removal and soil aridation would act to reduce the DTR during periods of drought and human mismanagement over semiarid regions such as the Sahel and to increase the DTR with more rainfall and better human management. Other mechanisms with similar effects on surface energy balance, such as increased nighttime downward longwave radiation due to increased greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds, would also be expected to have a larger impact on DTR over drier regions.drought ͉ surface emissivity ͉ longwave radiation ͉ sensitivity test ͉ surface energy balance T he global mean land surface air temperature has been steadily rising since the 1950s, primarily attributed to increased greenhouse gases, and this rising results largely from nighttime warming over some land areas as minimum temperature (T min ) increased much faster than maximum temperature (T max ) (1). Associated with such asymmetric warming is the reduction of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) (DTR ϭ T max Ϫ T min ) (1). The decrease in DTR has been observed over most locations over land since 1950 (2), but in many parts of the world this decline abated in the early 1980s (3), perhaps coincident with the reversal of global dimming (4). The DTR appears to continue to decrease in some rapidly industrializing locations such as southern China (5).Changes in DTR can result from a number of mechanisms, all connected to the surface energy balance. The most obvious and widely recognized mechanism from a meteorological viewpoint is the reduction of DTR as a consequence of the increase of clouds, precipitation, and soil moisture (6, 7). Clouds, especially low clouds, decrease the daytime surface solar heating and increase nighttime downward longwave radiation. Evapotranspiration associated with soil moisture and precipitation can balance solar heating and further reduce T max . These day-to-day changes in DTR aggregate to seasonal to multidecadal statistical connections between DTR and clouds/precipitation/soil moisture (7).Other mechanisms such as changes in atmospheric circulation, greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover/use may also contribute to a decrease of the DTR (6,8,...

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“…The difficulty stems from the complex meteorological effects of clouds, which reduce not only insolation but also back radiation, thus possibly increasing T min by enhancing long-wave surface warming at night (12,13). Understanding the relative impacts of T min and radiation is important in view of evidence of a declining trend in surface radiation (global dimming) (14), which probably results from increased cloudiness caused by a combination of global warming and regional brown clouds of aerosol pollution (13)(14)(15)(16). A study based on a small number of annual observations (twelve) from a research station in the Philippines reported that the yield of irrigated rice decreased by 10% for each 1°C increase in T min averaged over the growing season (8).…”

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confidence: 99%

Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures

Welch

Vincent

Auffhammer

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

552

357

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Data from farmer-managed fields have not been used previously to disentangle the impacts of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and solar radiation on rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia. We used a multiple regression model to analyze data from 227 intensively managed irrigated rice farms in six important riceproducing countries. The farm-level detail, observed over multiple growing seasons, enabled us to construct farm-specific weather variables, control for unobserved factors that either were unique to each farm but did not vary over time or were common to all farms at a given site but varied by season and year, and obtain more precise estimates by including farm-and site-specific economic variables. Temperature and radiation had statistically significant impacts during both the vegetative and ripening phases of the rice plant. Higher minimum temperature reduced yield, whereas higher maximum temperature raised it; radiation impact varied by growth phase. Combined, these effects imply that yield at most sites would have grown more rapidly during the high-yielding season but less rapidly during the low-yielding season if observed temperature and radiation trends at the end of the 20th century had not occurred, with temperature trends being more influential. Looking ahead, they imply a net negative impact on yield from moderate warming in coming decades. Beyond that, the impact would likely become more negative, because prior research indicates that the impact of maximum temperature becomes negative at higher levels. Diurnal temperature variation must be considered when investigating the impacts of climate change on irrigated rice in Asia.T he impacts of temperature and solar radiation on rice yield remain imperfectly understood, despite decades of agronomic research. Current knowledge is based primarily on field trials and greenhouse experiments. These experimental studies indicate that increased temperature (1-4) and decreased radiation (1, 3, 5) can reduce yield, with the impacts varying across the plant's three growth phases (vegetative, establishment to panicle initiation; reproductive, panicle initiation to flowering; ripening, flowering to mature grain). Unresolved issues remain with respect to the relative impacts of temperature during daytime (T max ) vs. nighttime (T min ), potentially confounding impacts of temperature and radiation, and the magnitude of impacts in nonexperimental settings. Here, we investigate these issues by analyzing data from the largest farm-level rice study conducted in Asia since the mid-1980s. We use disaggregated data from farmer-managed fields to disentangle the impacts of T min , T max , and solar radiation on rice yield.With few exceptions (6, 7), most statistical studies on temperature and rice yield have focused on the impact of daily mean temperature (T ave ), despite evidence that that the effects of T min and T max on crop phenological development and physiological processes differ (4). It is well-established that extremely high levels of T max during flowering...

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Impact of aerosol indirect effect on surface temperature over East Asia

Cited by 130 publications

References 45 publications

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000

Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000

Impact of vegetation removal and soil aridation on diurnal temperature range in a semiarid region: Application to the Sahel

Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures

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