Impact of a reduced red and processed meat dietary pattern on disease risks and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK: a modelling study

Abstract

ObjectivesConsumption of red and processed meat (RPM) is a leading contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and high intakes of these foods increase the risks of several leading chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to use newly derived estimates of habitual meat intakes in UK adults to assess potential co-benefits to health and the environment from reduced RPM consumption.DesignModelling study using dietary intake data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of British Adults.SettingBritish general population.MethodsRespondents were divided into fifths by energy-adjusted RPM intakes, with vegetarians constituting a sixth stratum. GHG emitted in supplying the diets of each stratum was estimated using data from life-cycle analyses. A feasible counterfactual UK population was specified, in which the proportion of vegetarians measured in the survey population doubled, and the remainder adopted the dietary pattern of the lowest fifth of RPM consumers.Outcome measuresReductions in risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes and colorectal cancer, and GHG emissions, under the counterfactual.ResultsHabitual RPM intakes were 2.5 times higher in the top compared with the bottom fifth of consumers. Under the counterfactual, statistically significant reductions in population aggregate risks ranged from 3.2% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.7) for diabetes in women to 12.2% (6.4 to 18.0) for colorectal cancer in men, with those moving from the highest to lowest consumption levels gaining about twice these averages. The expected reduction in GHG emissions was 0.45 tonnes CO2 equivalent/person/year, about 3% of the current total, giving a reduction across the UK population of 27.8 million tonnes/year.ConclusionsReduced consumption of RPM would bring multiple benefits to health and environment.

The climatic impact of food consumption in a representative sample of Irish adults and implications for food and nutrition policy

“…In many studies, dietary emissions are based on consumption-level data from published data (food consumed) (21,(29)(30)(31)(46)(47)(48) or GHGE from agricultural commodities (49)(50)(51)(52) . It has been argued that food consumption surveys provide a more realistic distribution of dietary intakes across societal demographics (26) .…”

Emerging trends in European food, diets and food industry

“…The origin of such interest is possibly due to the recent meat safety crises (Verbeke et al, 2010), to the raising concerns on health issues (Pan et al, 2012), on sustainability (Aston et al, 2012;Austgulen, 2014), to the consumer dissatisfaction toward traditional muscle-type meat (Verbeke et al, 2010;Hocquette et al, 2013), and toward traditional production practices (Troy and Kerry, 2010). Although the negative image of the product and the general declaration of consumers to be concerned about animal welfare, their purchase behavior is different from their claim (Font-i-Furnols & Guerrero 2014).…”

How low can dietary greenhouse gas emissions be reduced without impairing nutritional adequacy, affordability and acceptability of the diet? A modelling study to guide sustainable food choices

“…Hence it has been suggested that dietary changes aimed at reducing diet-related GHGE may also promote health (8,9) . Some studies investigating dietary scenarios (10,11) or self-selected diets (12) with reduced meat consumption in the UK have strengthened the message of a compatibility between health and environmental dimensions. However, in a Dutch cohort, the GHGE of usual diets were not associated with mortality, indicating that an environmentally friendlier diet is not necessarily a healthier diet (13) .…”