Impact of a Conformité Européenne (CE) Certification–Marked Medical Software Sensor on COVID-19 Pandemic Progression Prediction: Register-Based Study Using Machine Learning Methods (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND To address the current COVID-19 and any future pandemic, we need robust, real-time, and population-scale collection and analysis of data. Rapid and comprehensive knowledge on the trends in reported symptoms in populations provides an earlier window into the progression of viral spread, and helps to predict the needs and timing of professional health care. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to use a Conformité Européenne (CE)-marked medical online symptom checker service, Omaolo, and validate the data against the national demand for COVID-19–related care to predict the pandemic progression in Finland. METHODS Our data comprised real-time Omaolo COVID-19 symptom checker responses (414,477 in total) and daily admission counts in nationwide inpatient and outpatient registers provided by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare from March 16 to June 15, 2020 (the first wave of the pandemic in Finland). The symptom checker responses provide self-triage information input to a medically qualified algorithm that produces a personalized probability of having COVID-19, and provides graded recommendations for further actions. We trained linear regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models together with F-score and mutual information feature preselectors to predict the admissions once a week, 1 week in advance. RESULTS Our models reached a mean absolute percentage error between 24.2% and 36.4% in predicting the national daily patient admissions. The best result was achieved by combining both Omaolo and historical patient admission counts. Our best predictor was linear regression with mutual information as the feature preselector. CONCLUSIONS Accurate short-term predictions of COVID-19 patient admissions can be made, and both symptom check questionnaires and daily admissions data contribute to the accuracy of the predictions. Thus, symptom checkers can be used to estimate the progression of the pandemic, which can be considered when predicting the health care burden in a future pandemic.