Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Hudman, R. C.; Martin, Maria Val; Yantosca, Robert M.

doi:10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015

Cited by 58 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…This is consistent with previous studies which have found increased sensitivity to surface CO for large VCDs (Bauduin et al, 2017). Yurganov et al (2011) compared IASI VCDs with measurements from three grating spectrometers within a plume from forest and peat fires in central Russia in July-August 2010. They found that the IASI VCDs were biased low compared with the ground-based measurements by an estimate of 1.61 ×10 18 molec cm −2 , or ∼ 35 %, over a sample with a mean IASI CO VCD of 4.7 ×10 18 molec cm −2 .…”

Section: Iasi Co and Nhsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite remote sensing instruments can capture some of this natural variability by estimating emissions and emission factors over various seasons, burning conditions, fuel types, and moisture content. Previous studies using satellite CO, NH 3 , and NO 2 data have assessed the relationship between these species (e.g., Coheur et al, 2009;Krol et al, 2013;Luo et al, 2015;Paulot et al, 2017;Pechony et al, 2013;R'Honi et al, 2013;Yurganov et al, 2011) and have also estimated emissions and emission factors (e.g., Mebust and Cohen, 2014;Mebust et al, 2011;Schreier et al, 2014Schreier et al, , 2015Tanimoto et al, 2015;Whitburn et al, , 2016b. Emission factors have also been estimated using groundbased Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers (e.g., Lutsch et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Satellite-derived emissions of carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide from the 2016 Horse River wildfire in the Fort McMurray area

et al. 2019

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In May 2016, the Horse River wildfire led to the evacuation of ∼ 88 000 people from Fort McMurray and surrounding areas and consumed ∼ 590 000 ha of land in Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Within the plume, satellite instruments measured elevated values of CO, NH 3 , and NO 2 . CO was measured by two Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometers (IASI-A and IASI-B), NH 3 by IASI-A, IASI-B, and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and NO 2 by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Daily emission rates were calculated from the satellite measurements using fire hotspot information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and wind information from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis, combined with assumptions on lifetimes and the altitude range of the plume. Sensitivity tests were performed and it was found that uncertainties of emission estimates are more sensitive to the plume shape for CO and to the lifetime for NH 3 and NO x . The satellite-derived emission rates were ∼ 50-300 kt d −1 for CO, ∼ 1-7 kt d −1 for NH 3 , and ∼ 0.5-2 kt d −1 for NO x (expressed as NO) during the most active fire periods. The daily satellite-derived emission estimates were found to correlate fairly well (R ∼ 0.4-0.7) with daily output from the ECMWF Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) and the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) FireWork models, with agreement within a factor of 2 for most comparisons. Emission ratios of NH 3 /CO, NO x /CO, and NO x /NH 3 were calculated and compared against enhancement ratios of surface concentrations measured at permanent surface air monitoring stations and by the Alberta Environment and Parks Mobile Air Monitoring Laboratory (MAML). For NH 3 /CO, the satellite emission ratios of ∼ 0.02 are within a factor of 2 of the model emission ratios and surface enhancement ratios. For NO x /CO satellite-measured emission ratios of ∼ 0.01 are lower than the modelled emission ratios of 0.033 for GFAS and 0.014 for FireWork, but are larger than the surface enhancement ratios of ∼ 0.003, which may have been affected by the short lifetime of NO x . Total emissions from the Horse River fire for May 2016 were calculated and compared against total annual anthropogenic emissions for the province of Alberta in 2016 from the ECCC Air Pollutant Emissions Inventory (APEI). Satellite-measured emissions of CO are ∼ 1500 kt for the Horse River fire and exceed the total annual Alberta anthropogenic CO emissions of 992.6 kt for 2016. The satellite-measured emissions during the Horse River fire of ∼ 30 kt of NH 3 and ∼ 7 kt of NO x (expressed as NO) are approximately 20 % and 1 % of the magnitude of total annual Alberta anthropogenic emissions, respectively.

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Section: Iasi Co and Nhsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite-derived emissions of carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide from the 2016 Horse River wildfire in the Fort McMurray area

et al. 2019

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“…In addition, intense episodic transport from biomass burning can impact near‐surface observations and lead to deposition of absorbing aerosol on snow and ice surfaces (e.g., Stohl et al, , ). An increasing extent of biomass burning and earlier onset of the burning season, related to increasing global temperatures, will likely have strong impacts on Arctic aerosol in the future (e.g., Y. Kim et al, ; Moritz et al, ; Warneke et al, ; Yue et al, ).…”

Section: Long‐range Transportmentioning

confidence: 99%

Processes Controlling the Composition and Abundance of Arctic Aerosol

Willis

Leaitch

Abbatt

2018

Reviews of Geophysics

143

154

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The Arctic region is a harbinger of global change and is warming at a rate higher than the global average. While Arctic warming is driven by increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases' in combination with local feedback mechanisms, short‐lived climate forcing agents, such as tropospheric aerosol, are also important drivers of Arctic climate. Arctic aerosol‐climate impacts vary seasonally as a result of the interplay between aerosol and different cloud types, available solar radiation, sea ice, surface albedo, Arctic and lower latitude removal processes, and atmospheric transport patterns. Photochemistry and efficient wet aerosol removal have low impact in winter but become important in spring to summer, dramatically altering aerosol chemical composition, and driving the size distribution from a pronounced accumulation mode toward a dominance of smaller particles. Retreating sea ice, increasing solar insolation and warmer temperatures in summer result in enhanced emissions from Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic sources, with impacts on the composition of gas and particle phases. Fractional cloud cover reaches a maximum in Arctic summer, in parallel with decreasing sea ice extent and surface albedo. This seasonal variation corresponds to significant changes in the net cloud radiative effect; changes that are affected by aerosol. This review summarizes our current knowledge of processes that control Arctic aerosol properties. We highlight both natural and anthropogenic processes that will be impacted by current and future sea ice loss. Efforts are needed to better constrain aerosol removal rates, characterize aerosol precursors, and constrain the seasonality and magnitude of aerosol‐cloud‐climate impacts.

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“…As listed in Table 2, we conduct the GEOSChem simulations by using the 1986-1990 MERRA fields (for comparison with the 2006-2010 fields) or the preindustrial land use data (1860 vs. the present-day condition for 2000), generally following the previous work of Fu and Tai (2015) and Heald and Geddes (2016). The impacts of climate change on wildfire emissions (Yue et al, 2015) are not considered here.…”

Section: Asynchronous Coupling and Model Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of surface ozone air quality to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Human activities have substantially increased atmospheric deposition of reactive nitrogen to the Earth's surface, inducing unintentional effects on ecosystems with complex environmental and climate consequences. One consequence remaining unexplored is how surface air quality might respond to the enhanced nitrogen deposition through surface-atmosphere exchange. Here we combine a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and a global land model (Community Land Model, CLM) to address this issue with a focus on ozone pollution in the Northern Hemisphere. We consider three processes that are important for surface ozone and can be perturbed by the addition of atmospheric deposited nitrogen -namely, emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ozone dry deposition, and soil nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions. We find that present-day anthropogenic nitrogen deposition (65 Tg N a −1 to the land), through enhancing plant growth (represented as increases in vegetation leaf area index, LAI, in the model), could increase surface ozone from increased biogenic VOC emissions (e.g., a 6.6 Tg increase in isoprene emission), but it could also decrease ozone due to higher ozone dry deposition velocities (up to 0.02-0.04 cm s −1 increases). Meanwhile, deposited anthropogenic nitrogen to soil enhances soil NO x emissions. The overall effect on summer mean surface ozone concentrations shows general increases over the globe (up to 1.5-2.3 ppbv over the western US and South Asia), except for some regions with high anthropogenic NO x emissions (0.5-1.0 ppbv decreases over the eastern US, western Europe, and North China). We compare the surface ozone changes with those driven by the past 20-year climate and historical land use changes. We find that the impacts from anthropogenic nitrogen deposition can be comparable to the climate-and land-use-driven surface ozone changes at regional scales and partly offset the surface ozone reductions due to land use changes reported in previous studies. Our study emphasizes the complexity of biosphere-atmosphere interactions, which can have important implications for future air quality prediction.

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Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

Cited by 58 publications

References 107 publications

Satellite-derived emissions of carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide from the 2016 Horse River wildfire in the Fort McMurray area

Satellite-derived emissions of carbon monoxide, ammonia, and nitrogen dioxide from the 2016 Horse River wildfire in the Fort McMurray area

Processes Controlling the Composition and Abundance of Arctic Aerosol

Responses of surface ozone air quality to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the Northern Hemisphere

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