Imagining Experiencing an Event in the Future Inflates Certainty That It Occurred in the Past

Calvillo, Dustin P.; Flores, Andrea N.; Lara, Paul M.; Hawkins, Whitney; Boman, Larry D.; Smelter, Thomas J.

doi:10.1177/0276236618803308

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…We determined our sample size with a set of power analyses, one for each hypothesis. For Hypothesis 1, we used similar materials in a previous study in our laboratory and found an imagination inflation effect of d = .72 (Calvillo et al, 2018). For Hypothesis 2, we used data from a previous study that appeared most similar to the present study (Lindner & Echterhoff, 2015), which found an effect of d = .50.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imagination inflation effects are unrelated across two imagination inflation tasks.

Calvillo

Vasquez

Pesavento

2019

Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice

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Imagination inflation occurs when individuals' confidence that an event has occurred increases after they imagine it occurring. The primary purpose of the present study was to examine the susceptibility to imagination inflation in two commonly used tasks: one with childhood events and one with simple actions performed in the laboratory. The secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between working memory capacity and imagination inflation. We predicted that susceptibility to imagination inflation would be positively correlated across tasks and both would be negatively correlated with working memory capacity. Participants completed imagination inflation tasks in two sessions that were 1 week apart. They also completed the automated operation span as a measure of working memory capacity. We found significant imagination inflation in both tasks, but susceptibility was not significantly related across the two and only imagination inflation for childhood events was significantly related to working memory capacity. These findings suggest that two tasks commonly used to examine imagination inflation may not measure the same effect.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imagination inflation effects are unrelated across two imagination inflation tasks.

Calvillo

Vasquez

Pesavento

2019

Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice

Self Cite

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“…Second, our 9% shift in overconfidence is similar to that demonstrated in a recent study on ‘imagination inflation’, whereby imagining a hypothetical event increased people's certainty that the event really happened. This mechanism is thought to contribute to problems associated with recovered memory therapy [ 69 ]. Third, our effect size is similar to a related illusion in which people who watched a video of a magician performing the tablecloth trick were more confident in their success actually performing the trick than people who merely thought about performing the trick but did not watch the video [ 28 ].…”

Section: Mini Meta-analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Trivially informative semantic context inflates people's confidence they can perform a highly complex skill

et al. 2022

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Some research suggests people are overconfident because of personality characteristics, lack of insight, or because overconfidence is beneficial in its own right. But other research fits with the possibility that fluent experience in the moment can rapidly drive overconfidence. For example, fluency can push people to become overconfident in their ability to throw a dart, know how rainbows form or predict the future value of a commodity. But surely there are limits to overconfidence. That is, even in the face of fluency manipulations known to increase feelings of confidence, reasonable people would reject the thought that they, for example, might be able to land a plane in an emergency. To address this question, we conducted two experiments comprising a total of 780 people. We asked some people (but not others) to watch a trivially informative video of a pilot landing a plane before they rated their confidence in their own ability to land a plane. We found watching the video inflated people's confidence that they could land a plane. Our findings extend prior work by suggesting that increased semantic context creates illusions not just of prior experience or understanding—but also of the ability to actually do something implausible.

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Quality principles of retrospective data collected through a life history calendar

Chevallereau

Berchtold

2022

Qual Quant

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To assert the quality of retrospective data, most studies using tools such as life history calendars rely on comparisons with external sources. Our research aimed to integrate quality principles into a life history calendar and test their capacity to evaluate the data quality. The purpose was to avoid reliance on external data sources because of their possible unavailability. The first quality principle was the relationship between the dating accuracy of verifiable events and the data quality of the life domains of the calendar. The second was the certainty, as self-assessed by participants through color coding, that an event took place at the quarter indicated. We designed an experiment using a paper-and-pencil life history calendar that was completed by 104 university students. Our research highlighted the relevance to use the self-assessment of certainty to assert the data quality. However, we could not establish a relationship between the dating accuracy of verifiable events and the data quality of the life domains. In addition, we present a set of qualitative findings from 20 interviews conducted with study participants explaining the approaches used to complete a life calendar and the difficulties encountered.

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Imagining Experiencing an Event in the Future Inflates Certainty That It Occurred in the Past

Cited by 3 publications

References 35 publications

Imagination inflation effects are unrelated across two imagination inflation tasks.

Imagination inflation effects are unrelated across two imagination inflation tasks.

Trivially informative semantic context inflates people's confidence they can perform a highly complex skill

Quality principles of retrospective data collected through a life history calendar

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