Imagination inflation: A statistical artifact of regression toward the mean

Pezdek, Kathy; Eddy, Rebecca

doi:10.3758/bf03200473

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Simulating an event has some effect on people's estimates of their future performance. The other point that we wish to make is that our results are consistent with the existing imagination inflation literature in that the imagined events showed a larger increase than the not-imagined items (e.g., Garry, Sharman, Wade, Hunt, & Smith, 2001;Heaps & Nash, 1999;Pezdek & Eddy, 2001). In the imagination inflation literature, the not-imagined items tended to increase, but this increase was typically smaller than the increase associated with the imagined items.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 79%

Mental simulation inflates performance estimates for physical abilities

2002

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In five experiments, we examined how mental simulation of physical activities affected estimates of one's ability to perform the same activities. In Experiment 1, participants who simulated lifting a heavy object estimated that they could lift more weight than did participants who did not perform the simulation. In Experiment 2A, the frequency with which participants performed the simulation exercises was manipulated. In Experiments 2B and 2C, we manipulated the amount of weight that people simulated lifting in order to address potential alternative explanations of the inflation effect. In Experiment 3, mental simulations were manipulated within subjects. In all the experiments, the simulated events showed inflated estimates,as compared with nonsimulated events. These results were interpreted in the context of the misattribution-of-familiarity account of imagination inflation.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 79%

Mental simulation inflates performance estimates for physical abilities

2002

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“…They were then asked to imagine 1 plausible and 1 implausible target event. Although Pezdek and Eddy (2001) have reported that regression toward the mean can account for some of the imagination inflation effect, there is no reason to think that this would confound the findings across conditions in this study.…”

contrasting

confidence: 47%

“…In the first phase, the subjects completed the 20-item LEI similar to that used by Pezdek and Eddy (2001). Self-paced, the subjects first rated each of the 20 events on a scale from 1 (definitely did not happen to me prior to age 10) to 8 (definitely did happen to me prior to age 10).…”

Section: Materials and Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imagination and memory: Does imagining implausible events lead to false autobiographical memories?

Pezdek

Blandón-Gitlin

Gabbay

2006

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

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“…Consistent with this possibility, Pezdek and Eddy (2001) reported that whereas autobiographical belief increased during the course of the experiment for events initially rated as unlikely to have occurred, it decreased for events initially rated as likely to have occurred. The plausibility of this explanation can be assessed by inspecting the mean change in belief that occurred for control events also selected for being unlikely to have occurred.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…This way of presenting the results is silent about the amount of any increase and where this occurs on the belief/confidence scale, impeding quantification and interpretation of the effects (Horselenberg et al, 2000; Pezdek & Eddy, 2001). One solution has been to compare the means of the same items when they were imagined and not imagined (i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating Memories for False Autobiographical Events in Childhood: A Systematic Review

Brewin

Andrews

2016

Applied Cognitive Psychology

107

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SummaryUsing a framework that distinguishes autobiographical belief, recollective experience, and confidence in memory, we review three major paradigms used to suggest false childhood events to adults: imagination inflation, false feedback and memory implantation. Imagination inflation and false feedback studies increase the belief that a suggested event occurred by a small amount such that events are still thought unlikely to have happened. In memory implantation studies, some recollective experience for the suggested events is induced on average in 47% of participants, but only in 15% are these experiences likely to be rated as full memories. We conclude that susceptibility to false memories of childhood events appears more limited than has been suggested. The data emphasise the complex judgements involved in distinguishing real from imaginary recollections and caution against accepting investigator‐based ratings as necessarily corresponding to participants' self‐reports. Recommendations are made for presenting the results of these studies in courtroom settings. © 2016 The Authors Applied Cognitive Psychology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Imagination inflation: A statistical artifact of regression toward the mean

Cited by 32 publications

References 13 publications

Mental simulation inflates performance estimates for physical abilities

Mental simulation inflates performance estimates for physical abilities

Imagination and memory: Does imagining implausible events lead to false autobiographical memories?

Creating Memories for False Autobiographical Events in Childhood: A Systematic Review

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