Illusory correlation and the maintenance of stereotypic beliefs.

Hamilton, David L.; Rose, Terrence L.

doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.832

Cited by 290 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This may occur for word pairs, such as knife-fork (Chapman, 1967), or for stereotypes, which are associations between social groups and personal characteristics (Hamilton & Rose, 1980). To test whether stereotype-confirming information is perceived to occur more frequently than other information, Hamilton and Rose presented sentences consisting of a name, an occupation, and two trait-descriptive adjectives (e.g., "Doug, an accountant, is timid and thoughtful").…”

Section: Illusory Correlationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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When reality monitoring fails: The role of imagination in stereotype maintenance.

Slusher

Anderson²

1987

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

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Section: Illusory Correlationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Box 1892, Houston, Texas 77251. Rose, 1980). The cognitive processes that maintain stereotypes are those that tend to inflate the perceived frequency with which stereotypic attributes are associated with group membership.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

When reality monitoring fails: The role of imagination in stereotype maintenance.

Slusher

Anderson²

1987

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

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“…It may be distinguished from several other psychological approaches. For instance, our approach departs from the assumptions of "cold cognitive" approaches to attitudes and social judgment, which discount motivational constructs as explanations, favoring instead information-processing limitations and mechanisms as determinants of social judgments (e.g., Hamilton & Rose, 1980;D. T. Miller & Ross, 1975;Srull & Wyer, 1979).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Political conservatism as motivated social cognition.

Jost¹,

Glaser²,

Kruglanski³

et al. 2003

Psychological Bulletin

3,677

244

3,211

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Analyzing political conservatism as motivated social cognition integrates theories of personality (authoritarianism, dogmatism-intolerance of ambiguity), epistemic and existential needs (for closure, regulatory focus, terror management), and ideological rationalization (social dominance, system justification). A meta-analysis (88 samples, 12 countries, 22,818 cases) confirms that several psychological variables predict political conservatism: death anxiety (weighted mean r ϭ .50); system instability (.47); dogmatism-intolerance of ambiguity (.34); openness to experience (-.32); uncertainty tolerance (-.27); needs for order, structure, and closure (.26); integrative complexity (-.20); fear of threat and loss (.18); and self-esteem (-.09). The core ideology of conservatism stresses resistance to change and justification of inequality and is motivated by needs that vary situationally and dispositionally to manage uncertainty and threat.Conservatism is a demanding mistress and is giving me a migraine.-George F. Will, BuntsFor more than half a century, psychologists have been tracking the hypothesis that different psychological motives and tendencies underlie ideological differences between the political left and the right. The practice of singling out political conservatives for special study began with Adorno, Frenkel-Brunswik, Levinson, and Sanford's (1950) landmark study of authoritarianism and the fascist potential in personality. An asymmetrical focus on right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) was criticized heavily on theoretical and methodological grounds (e.g., Christie, 1954;Eysenck, 1954;Rokeach, 1960;Shils, 1954), but it has withstood the relentless tests of time and empirical scrutiny (e.g., Altemeyer, 1981Altemeyer, , 1988Altemeyer, , 1996Altemeyer, , 1998Billig, 1984;Brown, 1965;Christie, 1991;Elms, 1969;Sidanius, 1985;W. F. Stone, 1980;W. F. Stone, Lederer, & Christie, 1993;Tetlock, 1984;Wilson, 1973c). A voluminous literature, which we review here, facilitates the comparison of cognitive styles and motivational needs of political conservatives with those of moderates, liberals, radicals, and left-wingers. In addition to classic and contemporary approaches to authoritarianism, we cover less obvious sources of theory and research on individual differences associated with dogmatism and intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty avoidance, need for cognitive closure, and social dominance orientation (SDO) insofar as each of these psychological variables contributes to a deeper and more nuanced understanding of political conservatism.The study of authoritarianism and other personality theories of political attitudes is often dismissed a priori as an illegitimate, value-laden attempt to correlate general psychological profiles with specific ideological beliefs (e.g., Durrheim, 1997; J. L. Martin, 2001;Ray, 1988). The psychological study of ideological conservatism is one that invites controversy (e.g., Redding, 2001;Sears, 1994;Sidanius, Pratto, & Bobo, 1996;Sniderman & Tetlock, 1986;Tetlock, 1994;Tetlock & Mitchell,...

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“…they may result from hidden third factors), or they may only apply in the conditions that are relevant to the reference class data . Moreover, when human judgment is involved (see below), correlations may be illusory [6] with preconceived correlations being confirmed in the judge"s mind by the selective recall of instances that accord with the belief in the correlation. The fallacy that a high correlation necessarily implies causation is widely encountered and can be a powerful influence of people"s reasoning.…”

Section: The Danger Of Misplaced Causalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

Goodwin

Wright

2010

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

158

106

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Publisher's copyright statement:Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events AbstractIn this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events. We evaluate these methods according to their ability to yield well-calibrated probabilities or point forecasts for such events. We first identify six factors that can lead to poor calibration and then examine how successful the methods are in mitigating these factors. We demonstrate that all the extant forecasting methods -including the use of expert judgment, statistical forecasting, Delphi and prediction markets -contain fundamental weaknesses. We contrast these methods with a nonforecasting method that is intended to aid planning for the future -scenario planning. We conclude that all the methods are problematic for aiding the anticipation of rare events and that the only remedies are to either (i) to provide protection for the organization against the occurrence of negatively-valenced events whilst allowing the organization to benefit from the occurrence of positively-valenced events, or (ii) to provide conditions to challenge one"s own thinking -and hence improve anticipation. We outline how use of components of devil"s advocacy and dialectical inquiry can be combined with Delphi and scenario planning to enhance anticipation of rare events.3 3

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Illusory correlation and the maintenance of stereotypic beliefs.

Cited by 290 publications

References 24 publications

When reality monitoring fails: The role of imagination in stereotype maintenance.

When reality monitoring fails: The role of imagination in stereotype maintenance.

Political conservatism as motivated social cognition.

The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events

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