Illicit/cheap cigarettes in South Africa

Zee, Kirsten van der; Walbeek, Corné van; Magadla, Sibahle

doi:10.1007/s12117-019-09372-9

Cited by 13 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…We share the findings of the second paper that smokers of illicit cigarettes have relatively low SES, low levels of education and are less likely to be employed. However, even township smokers from relatively high socioeconomic groups purchase illicit cigarettes, which is also consistent with the findings of the second paper 11…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…We would expect that illicit trade in townships would be higher than national estimates since low SES smokers might be more likely to buy cheap cigarettes and because of weak law enforcement. However, our estimates correspond with two recent national academic studies 2 11. This suggests that illicit trade is not concentrated in townships, but rather that it is ubiquitous across South Africa.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…First, our results are not nationally representative, nor representative of the selected townships. However, our findings are similar to those found in nationally representative studies 2 11. Second, it is possible that we erroneously edited valid data during our data cleaning process.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Using a gap analysis method, the first academic study finds the illicit cigarette market to be between 30% and 35% of the total market in 2017 2. Using a threshold price method, the second paper finds that approximately 30% of cigarettes were illicit in 2017 11. We share the findings of the second paper that smokers of illicit cigarettes have relatively low SES, low levels of education and are less likely to be employed.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 51%

“…Another recent academic study used a nationally representative household survey and a legal price threshold of R20 to estimate illicit trade. The authors found that roughly 30% of cigarettes consumed in South Africa in 2017 were illicit 11. The price threshold method identifies a price point (consisting of costs, profits and taxes) that separates legal cigarettes from illegal cigarettes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

et al. 2020

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BackgroundWe estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in low socioeconomic areas in South Africa before and after a tax increase. In 2018, the real excise tax increased by 3% and the value-added tax (VAT) rate increased from 14% to 15%. Thus, the real tax on cigarettes increased by 4%.MethodsA total of 2427 smokers were interviewed over two rounds of data collection (1234 before the tax increase and 1193 after). Data were collected in six townships across four of South Africa’s nine provinces. Smokers were asked about their most recent cigarette purchase. Cigarettes purchased for R1 (US$0.08) or less per stick are presumed illicit, based on a threshold price, which includes production costs and taxes.ResultsIn 2017 and 2018 respectively, 34.6% and 36.4% of smokers in the sample purchased illicit cigarettes. The increase in the proportion of illicit purchases was not statistically significant. Smokers with relatively low socioeconomic status, those who have low levels of education and those who are older or unemployed are most likely to purchase illicit cigarettes.ConclusionsThe illicit cigarette trade in South African townships is widespread. The government should implement an independent track and trace system to curb tax evasion. This would reduce the availability of illicit cigarettes, improve public health and increase excise tax collection.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 51%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

et al. 2020

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Tax evasion and illicit cigarettes in California: prevalence and demand-side correlates

Prieger

2022

Crime Law Soc Change

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Singlestick purchases: a comparative cross-country analysis in 10 African countries, Global Adult Tobacco Survey, 2012–21

Mbulo,

Blutcher-Nelson,

Chowdhury

et al. 2024

Health Education Research

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We utilized Global Adult Tobacco Survey data to examine singlestick purchases and related demographic characteristics in 10 African countries (Botswana, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Mauritania, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and Tanzania). Results show the weighted percentages and prevalence ratios with predicted marginal means to evaluate significant differences between groups (P < 0.05). The prevalence of singlestick purchases among the 10 African countries ranged from 48.4% in South Africa to 92.0% in Tanzania. Across countries, the incidence of singlestick purchases was higher in urban areas than rural areas in Kenya; among those aged 15–24 years versus those aged 45 years and older in Botswana, Ethiopia, Mauritania, Nigeria and South Africa; and among those aged 25–44 years versus those aged 45 years and older in Botswana, South Africa and Tanzania. The incidence in Botswana was higher among adults with no formal or primary education than among those with secondary or higher education. In South Africa, the incidence was higher among adults in the middle or lower wealth index than among those in the high or highest wealth index. The findings suggest opportunities for strengthening efforts to prevent singlestick purchases through effective legislation and enforcement in line with Article 16 of the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

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Illicit/cheap cigarettes in South Africa

Cited by 13 publications

References 24 publications

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

Tax evasion and illicit cigarettes in California: prevalence and demand-side correlates

Singlestick purchases: a comparative cross-country analysis in 10 African countries, Global Adult Tobacco Survey, 2012–21

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