ILCYM - Insect Life Cycle Modeling. A software package for developing temperature-based insect phenology models with applications for local, regional and global analysis of insect population and mapping

Sporleder, M.; Carhuapoma, P.; Juárez, Henry; Gamarra, Hernández; Simon, Reinhard; Kroschel, J.

doi:10.4160/9789290603801

Cited by 2 publications

(29 citation statements)

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“…The open access ILCYM software (version 3.0 -http://www.cipotato.org), developed by CIP (Tonnang et al 2013), was utilized to create a temperaturedependent phenology model of S. frugiperda. We used ILCYM's modules for the phenology model by utilizing the 'model builder', 'validation and simulation' and 'population analysis and mapping tools.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis and Phenology Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here we utilized the model builder, validation, and simulation modules to create and test the phenology and to simulate the life table parameters. After tting a total of 59 non-linear models for each development parameter, we selected the best-t model using R 2 and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) (Tonnang et al 2013). Each tted parameter in ILCYM was subjected to the Least Square Design (LSD) test at a signi cance level of 0.05 to establish probability cutoffs.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis and Phenology Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The FAW phenology model for development, mortality, female fecundity, and adult senescence were built based on temperature data. Then, the stochastic simulation' module in ILCYM was used to estimate the following life table parameters: (1) the gross reproductive rate (GRR), (2) the net reproductive rate (Ro), (3) the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r m ), (4) the mean generation time (Tc), (5) the doubling time (Dt), and (6) the nite rate of increase (λ) at the tested temperatures (Tonnang et al 2013). Five sets of simulations were run at each temperature, beginning with 100 individuals in the egg stage followed by 30 males and females for the adult stage.…”

Section: Lifetable Parametermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The "population distribution and risk mapping" module of ILCYM which is integrated with a simple geographic information system (GIS), was utilized to visualize the possible risk posed by S. frugiperda (Kroschel et al 2013;Tonnang et al 2013). Using the estimated life table parameters, the establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) were derived to indicate the risk of FAW at each location.…”

Section: Mapping Of the Potential Distribution Of S Frugiperda Under ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding S. frugiperda's impact on crops under current and future climates is critical for sustainable agricultural productivity and food security. Thus, it is essential to understand the temperature-dependent population development potential in order to comprehend the pest's population dynamics and implement control tactics speci c to agro-ecoregions, especially in light of the predicted changes in global temperatures, which have increased over the last 30 years (Rutherford et al 2005 Here the phenology of insects is controlled by temperature and is organized according to their life stages (Tonnang et al 2013). Such information is crucial for risk assessments, forecasts, and management strategies, especially in a changing climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combining temperature-dependent life table data into Insect Life Cycle Model to forecast fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) distribution in maize agro- ecological zones in Africa

Adan,

Tonnang,

Kassa

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The fall armyworm (FAW) Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is an agricultural pest that recently invaded Africa. FAW has spread and established in many countries across the continent, causing huge yield losses. This study aimed to determine the relationship between temperature and the life history traits of FAW and to provide the suitable temperatures for development using life cycle modeling. Non-linear models were fitted to life table data collected at five constant temperatures of 20, 25, 28, 30, and 32 °C. The development time ranged between 0–3 days, 10–18 days, and 7–16 days for eggs, larvae, and pupae, respectively. While the optimum temperature for FAW immature stages' survival and female fecundity was predicted at a temperature range of 21–25 °C, the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) and gross reproductive rate (GRR) were significantly higher at temperatures between 25–28 °C. The model validation outcome showed similarities between observed and simulated values for development time, mortality rate, and life table parameters, attesting to the high performance of the phenology model produced. The study also explores the establishment risk index, activity index, and generation index as indicators of infestation and transmission potential of the current, 2050, 2070 climate scenarios to predict the effect of climate warming on the distribution and population dynamics of FAW. The study predicts a decrease in FAW occurrence in West Africa by 2050–2070. The results obtained could be utilized to develop management plans for FAW control that work in the different agro-ecological zones in Africa.

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Section: Statistical Analysis and Phenology Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Statistical Analysis and Phenology Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Lifetable Parametermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mapping Of the Potential Distribution Of S Frugiperda Under ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combining temperature-dependent life table data into Insect Life Cycle Model to forecast fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) distribution in maize agro- ecological zones in Africa

Adan,

Tonnang,

Kassa

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Impact of temperature on the bionomics and geographical range margins of the two-spotted field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the world: Implications for its mass farming

Magara,

Tanga,

Fisher

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Gryllus bimaculatus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is widely considered an excellent nutrient source for food and feed. Despite its economic importance, there is limited information on the impact of temperature on the bionomics of this cricket to guide its effective and sustainable mass production in its geographical range. The biological parameters of G. bimaculatus were investigated at eight different temperatures ranging from 20–40˚C. The Insect Life-Cycle Modelling (ILCYM) program was used to fit linear and non-linear functions to the data to describe the influence of temperature on life history parameters and its farmability under the current and projected climate for 2050. Our results revealed that G. bimaculatus was able to complete its lifecycle in the temperature range of 20°C to 37°C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (= 1.14) at 35°C. The developmental time of G. bimaculatus decreased with increasing temperature. The least developmental time and mortality were attained at 32°C. The highest wet length and mass of G. bimaculatus occurred at 32°C. The lowest temperature threshold for G. bimaculatus egg and nymph development was approximated using linear regression functions to be at 15.9°C and 16.2°C with a temperature constant of 108.7 and 555.6 degree days. The maximum fecundity (2301.98 eggs per female), net reproductive rate (988.42 daughters/ generation), and intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.134 days) were recorded at 32°C and the shortest doubling of 5.2 days was observed at 35°C. Based on our findings G. bimaculatus can be farmed in countries with temperatures ranging between 20 and 37°C around the globe. These findings will help the cricket farmers understand and project the cricket population dynamics around the world as influenced by temperature, and as such, will contribute to more efficient farming.

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ILCYM - Insect Life Cycle Modeling. A software package for developing temperature-based insect phenology models with applications for local, regional and global analysis of insect population and mapping

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Combining temperature-dependent life table data into Insect Life Cycle Model to forecast fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) distribution in maize agro- ecological zones in Africa

Combining temperature-dependent life table data into Insect Life Cycle Model to forecast fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) distribution in maize agro- ecological zones in Africa

Impact of temperature on the bionomics and geographical range margins of the two-spotted field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus in the world: Implications for its mass farming

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