İkli̇m Deği̇şi̇kli̇ği̇: Yağişlarin Ekonomi̇k Büyüme Üzeri̇ne Etki̇si̇

Abstract

The variation in rainfall amount is found to be more forceful in poorer or agriculture-dependent countries and seems to be less effective for industrial economies. As Turkey is a newly industrialised country with a growing service economy, it is categorized as an emerging economy in the world. However, agricultural industry still plays a significant role in the economy especially in terms of the level of employment. The aim of the study is to examine the impact of rainfall on economy through economic outcomes of drought on agricultural industry. There seems to be a positive correlation between rainfall and agricultural industry in over the investigated period. As the growth in agricultural industry is highly correlated, similarly rainfall and overall economic growth appear to be coinciding and moving together. When there is drought in the country, economic crises follow this pattern. Besides rainfall, another variable, temperature, is allowed to identify whether it has any effect on the growth. Contrary to rain, temperature has no influence on agricultural output. The descriptive figures note that while agricultural industry involves a small share of the whole economy, the results of the study imply rainfall amount in Turkey has more impacts on economic growth than thought.

Mind the gap between the economic effect of climate change and the reality

“…Dell et al [32] for (125 countries) Sub-Saharan Africa and out of Sub-Saharan Africa, Bernauer et al [33] for African countries, and Akram and Gulzar [29] for Pakistan, Belford et al [34] for Gambia found that climate change leads to an decrease in economic growth. Contrary to the findings of these studies, Knight and Schor [28] for 29 high-income countries, and Kara and Diken [35] for Turkey found that climate change leads to an increase in economic growth. However, there are researches in the literature that found significant results with different indicators of climate change, as well as studies that could not find any relationship between some variables [36].…”