Journal of Mathematical Psychology volume 49, issue 2, P115-124 2005 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2005.01.001 View full text
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Robin M. Hogarth, Natalia Karelaia

Abstract: When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrel…

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