Ideology matters: Political machinations, modernism, and myopia in Rwanda's electricity boom

Dye, Barnaby

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2019.101358

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Modernist ideologies have historic roots in Ghana, and are particularly associated with President Nkrumah and the scale of ambition and optimism of his Volta River Project (Hoag, 2013). Moreover, a similar belief in the megawatt to create development by itself is visible elsewhere, for example in Rwanda's and Tanzania's rapid building of power plants (Dye, 2018, p 4;2020a). The overruling of experts' advice and forecasts suggests, at some level, an ideological belief in the power of megawatts to deliver economic demand and development, a confidence that technology could overcome structural constraints.…”

Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 91%

“…There are two notable mainstream manifestations of this in Acemoglu and Robinson (2013) and North et al (2013), both of which look to further interrogate underlying political power structures. In brief, Acemoglu and Robinson (2013) Research on electricity also increasingly asserts the important influence of politics (Dye, 2020a;Gregory & Sovacool, 2019;MacLean, Gore et al, 2016;MacLean, Bob-Milliar et al, 2016). Frequently, this has manifested in assessment of the factors behind the official adoption and implementation of the standard reform model (Kapika & Eberhard, 2013).…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Dye (2016Dye ( , 20182020a), this type of linear, technologically centric thinking in the electricity sector has roots in the high-modernist logics coined by Scott (1998): they suggest an overriding belief in technology to create socioeconomic change and overconfidence in top-down planning expertise. Modernist ideologies have historic roots in Ghana, and are particularly associated with President Nkrumah and the scale of ambition and optimism of his Volta River Project (Hoag, 2013).…”

Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Structural reform and the politics of electricity crises in Ghana: tidying whilst the house is on fire?

Dye

2022

SSRN Journal

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The 1990s 'good governance agenda produced a programme of change called the standard reform model. It involves privatising utilities, the creation of markets and the unbundling of electricity-system functions into formally separate, 'independent' regulated units. Pushed by the World Bank and others, elements of this programme have been widely adopted across developing countries, including in Ghana. However, Ghana, like many countries in Africa, continues to suffer from major power crises. In the past decade, the country has lurched from unprecedented shortages to electricity overabundance, entailing spiralling debt. Donors, researchers and policymakers in Ghana have pushed further privatisation and institutional-separation reforms as a solution. However, this paper demonstrates that, thus far, attempts to create good governance through the standard reform model have been overwhelmed by Ghana's politics. Using the political settlements framework, this article demonstrates how intense competition entailing an all-consuming focus on elections overcame the formal organisational separation and the inclusion of expertise in planning and operating the electricity system. Alongside high-modernist ideological beliefs in the power of megawatts to produce industrialisation, such competition created Ghana's crises of absence and abundance. The paper consequently highlights a disconnect between a continuing focus on the good governance model and the politics driving policymaking: too great a focus on democratic institutions, formal organisations and market motivations misses the importance of political power and how it manifests within ruling coalitions to shape governmental decision making. Greater questioning is therefore needed of the standard reform model and its assumptions about how to improve electricity outcomes.

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Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Structural reform and the politics of electricity crises in Ghana: tidying whilst the house is on fire?

Dye

2022

SSRN Journal

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“…The speed at which a vibrant power-sector market was created is itself impressive, particularly when considered against Rwanda's landlocked geography and its recent history. Moreover, in contrast to countries like Tanzania, Rwanda has successfully fostered trust in its PPA contracts, making them 'bankable', meaning that they can be used to raise private finance (Dye, 2020). Many of the new micro-hydro companies received financial start-up support from donors.…”

Section: Peatmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the government has not constructed specific peaking capacity to meet this demand spike. Rather, it has built baseload generation that is designed to run constantly (Dye, 2020). This means that, even if peak demand and supply are matched, there will be oversupply for the roughly 20 hours when electricity need is lower than the pronounced evening spike.…”

Section: Figure 3: Ppas Of Recent Solar Power Plants In Sub-saharan Amentioning

confidence: 99%

The Contradictions of an Aspiring Developmental State: Energy Boom and Bureaucratic Independence in Rwanda

Dye

Chemouni

2020

SSRN Journal

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Scholars have typically explained the developmental performance of late-late developers through the analytical lens applied to East Asian developmental states, a lens that focuses on bureaucratic capacity and the bureaucracy's relationship with businesses and with society more broadly. In contrast, relatively limited attention is devoted to the relationship between bureaucrats and politicians. This is surprising, as a rich literature exists on this topic in developed countries and recent work has underlined the importance of the bureaucraticpolitical interface in poorer countries' reform processes. This article contributes to addressing this gap. It demonstrates the significance of internal regime dynamics between politicians and bureaucrats as a factor explaining states' ability to create functioning economic development. Using the case of the electricity sector in the aspiring developmental state, Rwanda, it shows the importance of what we term bureaucratic independencethe ability of the civil service to formulate technical advice and to deploy it in policymaking. We demonstrate how the absence of such independence produces economically-wasteful, even developmentally-detrimental, outcomes. This is notable, given the capability of Rwanda's bureaucracy, the resources available for projects and the strong commitment of ruling elites to long-term development ambitions. By limiting the space for administrators to assert their professional perspective on policymaking and implementation, the executive branch of government and the wider ruling party have created an electricity production system poorly attuned to Rwanda's energy demand profile, and one that is prohibitively costly, particularly in the African context. Thus, we argue that understanding a state's development potential involves analysis of the power relations between rulers and the wider state apparatus.

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Electricity access in Mozambique: A critical policy analysis of investment, service reliability and social sustainability

Salite

Kirshner

Cotton

et al. 2021

Energy Research & Social Science

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Ideology matters: Political machinations, modernism, and myopia in Rwanda's electricity boom

Cited by 10 publications

References 30 publications

Structural reform and the politics of electricity crises in Ghana: tidying whilst the house is on fire?

Structural reform and the politics of electricity crises in Ghana: tidying whilst the house is on fire?

The Contradictions of an Aspiring Developmental State: Energy Boom and Bureaucratic Independence in Rwanda

Electricity access in Mozambique: A critical policy analysis of investment, service reliability and social sustainability

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