Identifying Truly Fragile States

This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

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“…Poor intra-society relations constitute an important underlying cause of fragility (Kaplan 2014). 4.…”

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opening the Black Box: The Contextual Drivers of Social Accountability

Aslam¹,

Grandvoinnet²,

Raha³

2015

100

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“…However, the issue that has not been thoroughly researched is how the decentralised nature of the Nigerian political system and the contested issue of 'fiscal federalism' continue to aggravate tensions in the polity. Furthermore, the nation's historical legacy meant that state expenditure on pro-poor activities were frequently subjected to political will; reinforced by the fixation of the political elites with rent-seeking, which, unfortunately, 'turned the rest of society into a prey' [41,53,54,55]. The 1999 Nigerian Federal Constitution clearly outlines the responsibilities of government to citizens: directing government to focus 'public (social) policy on actions that will enhance happiness and promote welfare' [56].…”

Section: Nigeria: a Muddled Site Of Social Policy Failures Or An Expe...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Governance of Nigeria’s Social Protection: The Burdens of Developmental Welfarism?

Shadare

2022

Societies

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Empirical findings on the implementation of neoliberal social policies in the global south has presented them as mostly political economy failures. In several studies, their messy interactions with politics and a myriad of implementation bottlenecks were highlighted. Social protection and social programmes, as an example of social policies have unfortunately become politicised used as instruments by political leaders striving to win political capital in environments of unbridled, and complex bureaucratic procedures. This article analyses challenges of social development or ‘developmental welfarism’ in the Nigerian context through interrogation of the territorial governance of Nigerian social protection. The issues addressed by this article relates to the orientation of Nigerian social policy dynamics and the exploration of these challenges, were described as the ‘burdens of developmental welfarism’ which relates to the broader issues of the so-called Nigerian ‘developmental’ state. The analysis of Nigerian social policy dynamics through a political economy lens, highlighted the ramifications of the complex interactions of different stakeholders (international, local and non-state actors) as well as processes and mechanisms that shaped the territorial governance of Nigerian social policy programmes. The article unpacked the issues and challenges of Nigerian social protection and offered some policy recommendations for ‘unburdening’ Nigerian social policy.

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“…This, however, may not be supported by empirical data. 23 Opaque methodologies prevent an analysis of why the fragility indices led to such an optimistic picture of Mali pre-2012. According to the Fund for Peace, country rankings are calculated using twelve specific indicators across four categories or dimensions: Cohesion, Economic, Political, and Social.…”

Section: Quantitative Risk Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Unforeseen 2012 Crisis in Mali: The Diverging Outcomes of Risk and Threat Analyses

Boeke

Valk

2019

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

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The 2012 crisis in Mali, where the state collapsed and terrorist groups took over the north, came as a surprise to many. Mali had been considered a poster-child for democracy and was judged as considerably more stable than its neighbors by leading quantitative indices of state fragility. This article explores how quantitative risk and qualitative threat approaches led to incomplete analyses, and how bureaucratic processes stifled a holistic diagnosis of the situation in Mali. French and Dutch government views are analyzed, adding new empirical information on how ministries and embassies were unwilling to call out disconcerting developments in Mali.

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Identifying Truly Fragile States

Cited by 25 publications

References 5 publications

Opening the Black Box: The Contextual Drivers of Social Accountability

Opening the Black Box: The Contextual Drivers of Social Accountability

The Governance of Nigeria’s Social Protection: The Burdens of Developmental Welfarism?

The Unforeseen 2012 Crisis in Mali: The Diverging Outcomes of Risk and Threat Analyses

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