Rationale:The study of genetic modifiers in cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease requires rigorous phenotyping. One type of genetic association study design compares polymorphisms in patients at extremes of phenotype, requiring accurate classification of pulmonary disease at varying ages. Objective: To evaluate approaches to quantify severity of pulmonary disease and their ability to discriminate between patients with CF at the extremes of phenotype. Methods: ⌬F508 homozygotes (n ϭ 828) were initially classified as "severe" (approximate lowest quartile of FEV 1 (% pred) for age, 8-25 yr) or "mild" disease (highest quartile of FEV 1 for age, у 15 yr). FEV 1 measurements from the 5 yr before enrollment (total ϭ 18,501 measurements; average 23 per subject) were analyzed with mixed models, and patient-specific estimates of FEV 1 (% pred) at ages 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 yr and slope of FEV 1 versus age were examined for their ability to discriminate between groups using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve areas. Results: Logistic regression of severity group on mixed model (empirical Bayes) estimates of intercept and slope of FEV 1 (% pred) versus age discriminated better than did classification using Cystic fibrosis (CF) is an autosomal recessive genetic disease caused by mutations in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene. Because most patients with CF develop progressive pulmonary disease, measures of pulmonary involvement, in particular FEV 1 , have been used as markers of disease severity and to predict survival (1-3). However, considerable heterogeneity exists in prognosis and severity, even among patients of the same genotype, suggesting that genetic modifiers may play a role (4). The study of gene modifiers in monogenic disorders requires rigorous phenotyping, and inadequate characterization of the phenotype is a well-recognized limitation of case-control genetic association studies (5-8). In CF, pulmonary phenotyping is complex because the progression of lung disease is likely multifactorial and is multiphasic or nonlinear for some patients (9, 10).One specific type of case-control genetic association study design compares patients at the extremes of phenotype (i.e., those with severe versus mild disease) because it provides additional power to detect gene modifiers (11). In such studies, it is particularly important to be able to accurately identify patients at the extremes of phenotype. In this article, we investigate approaches to classifying severity of disease when longitudinal lung function measures are available and compare them using data from the Gene Modifier Study (GMS), a large, multicenter study of genetic modifiers of CF lung disease (12). The goal of the GMS is to examine the association of genetic polymorphisms with pulmonary phenotype in ⌬F508 homozygotes by comparing patients with "severe" versus "mild" pulmonary disease.
METHODS
Design and Enrollment Criteria in the GMSPatients were initially enrolled into "severe" or "mild' groups based on current age an...