1997
DOI: 10.1203/00006450-199702000-00001
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Identifying Treatments That Halt Progression of Pulmonary Disease in Cystic Fibrosis

Abstract: Rapid progress in cystic fibrosis research affords the possibility of halting the progress of the lung disease. We used data from 215 patients who had sputum cultures negative for Burkholderia cepacia, at least one outpatient pulmonary function test during 1990, and at least one test a year later to estimate the number of subjects and study duration required to demonstrate that a hypothetical treatment reduces the rate of decline of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) to zero. Mean rate of decline of FEV1 (… Show more

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Cited by 86 publications
(63 citation statements)
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“…The similarity of these longitudinal prediction models may be explained by relative homogeneity in patterns of disease progression in CF. Indeed, different samples of the CF population have reported similar annual rates of decline in FEV 1 %pred, with mean values ranging from Ϫ1.5 to Ϫ3.6 (7,14,(43)(44)(45)(46). The results presented here indicate that AvgFEV 1 CF% or EstFEV 1 %@20yrs corrected for pancreatic status can be used to test genes that are candidate modifiers of CF lung disease.…”
Section: Table 3 Intrapair Correlations For Cross-sectional and Longmentioning
confidence: 85%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…The similarity of these longitudinal prediction models may be explained by relative homogeneity in patterns of disease progression in CF. Indeed, different samples of the CF population have reported similar annual rates of decline in FEV 1 %pred, with mean values ranging from Ϫ1.5 to Ϫ3.6 (7,14,(43)(44)(45)(46). The results presented here indicate that AvgFEV 1 CF% or EstFEV 1 %@20yrs corrected for pancreatic status can be used to test genes that are candidate modifiers of CF lung disease.…”
Section: Table 3 Intrapair Correlations For Cross-sectional and Longmentioning
confidence: 85%
“…Traditionally, pulmonary function testing (PFT) has been used to determine severity of and monitor progression in CF lung disease (13,14). The FEV 1 is the PFT measurement that is most predictive of survival in CF (15,16).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As indicated by the ROC areas in Table 2, LS estimates of slopes or levels of FEV 1 (% pred) do not discriminate between groups as well as the mixed model estimates do. It is well known that LS slopes can be highly variable and imprecise for patients with few data points over a short time period (17)(18)(19)(20). When restricted to subjects with 5 yr of data, the discriminating ability of LS estimates improved, but mixed model estimates still outperformed the LS estimates ( Table 2).…”
Section: Ability Of Measures Of Disease Severity To Discriminate Betwmentioning
confidence: 90%
“…Mixed model estimates of slope and intercept (at birth; i.e., age, 0 yr) of the regression of FEV 1 (% pred) versus age were used to estimate the level of FEV 1 at the age of enrollment for each patient and at other fixed ages (e.g., 15,10,15,20, and 25 yr). In Figure 2, the estimated FEV 1 (% pred) values at enrollment (obtained from an analysis of all FEV 1 values) are plotted against age of enrollment for the 820 patients.…”
Section: Screening For Outliers and Characterization Of Severity Groupsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, these end points are not suitable for early phase II trials, because large patient numbers (4500) and long follow-up (412 months) would be required. 62 It is therefore crucial to identify clinical surrogate end points (such as bacterial burden, inflammatory markers and imaging) that can be assessed in smaller patient cohorts with shorter follow-up. It is unlikely that one-time administration of a short acting GTA will change these clinical surrogate end points, but will more likely require repeat administration and it is therefore important to design future gene therapy trials with these surrogate end points in mind.…”
Section: Assaysmentioning
confidence: 99%