Objectives
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has been increasing in the United States for several decades. As the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection declines and the prevalence of metabolic disorders rises, the proportion of HCC attributable to various risk factors may be changing.
Methods
Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linkage were used to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for each risk factor over time. HCC cases (n=10,708) diagnosed during the years 2000–2011 were compared to a 5% random sample of cancer-free persons (n=332,107) residing in the SEER areas. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and PAFs were calculated for hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), metabolic disorders, alcohol-related disorders, smoking, and genetic disorders.
Results
Overall, the PAF was greatest for metabolic disorders (32.0%), followed by HCV (20.5%), alcohol (13.4%), smoking (9.0%), HBV (4.3%) and genetic disorders (1.5%). The PAF for all factors combined was 59.5%. PAFs differed by race/ethnicity and gender. Metabolic disorders had the largest PAF among Hispanics (39.3%, CI=31.9–46.7%) and whites (34.8%, CI=33.1–36.5%), while HCV had the largest PAF among blacks (36.1%, CI=31.8–40.4%) and Asians (29.7%, CI=25.9–33.4%). Between 2000 and 2011, the PAF of metabolic disorders increased from 25.8% (CI=22.8–28.9%) to 36.0% (CI=33.6–38.5%). In contrast, the PAFs of alcohol-related disorders and HCV remained stable.
Conclusions
Among U.S. Medicare recipients, metabolic disorders contribute more to the burden of HCC than any other risk factor and the fraction of HCC due to metabolic disorders has increased in the last decade.