Identifying the Dominant Drivers of Hydrological Change in the Contiguous United States

Li, Zhiying; Quiring, Steven M.

doi:10.1029/2021wr029738

Cited by 29 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 100 publications

(227 reference statements)

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“…Previous research has produced apparently conflicting insights on how land hydrological conditions have changed [2][3][4][5] , ranging from increasing aridity over land 6 and further drying in the world's driest regions [7][8][9] , to the acceleration of the hydrological cycle 10 and increased vegetation "greening" (implying relaxation in water-limitations) [11][12][13][14][15] . Some studies have suggested that hydrological cycle trends are consistent with 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' 9,16 , while others have found that both this and the opposite pattern 'dry gets wetter and wet gets drier' is detectable on land 3,17 . These conflicting findings may stem from different interpretations of 'drying', 'aridity' and 'intensification', depending on the metrics and spatial-scale aggregation methods used 4,18 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconciling historical changes in the hydrological cycle over land

et al. 2022

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The sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report confirms that global warming drives widespread changes in the global terrestrial hydrological cycle, and that changes are regionally diverse. However, reported trends and changes in the hydrological cycle suffer from significant inconsistencies. This is associated with the lack of a rigorous observationally-based assessment of simultaneous trends in the different components of the hydrological cycle. Here, we reconcile these different estimates of historical changes by simultaneously analysing trends in all the major components of the hydrological cycle, coupled with vegetation greenness for the period 1980–2012. We use observationally constrained, conserving estimates of the closure of the hydrological cycle, combined with a data assimilation approach and observationally-driven uncertainty estimates. We find robust changes in the hydrological cycle across more than 50% of the land area, with evapotranspiration (ET) changing the most and precipitation (P) the least. We find many instances of unambiguous trends in ET and runoff (Q) without robust trends in P, a result broadly consistent with a “wet gets wetter, but dry does not get drier”. These findings provide important opportunities for water resources management and climate risk assessment over a significant fraction of the land surface where hydrological trends have previously been uncertain.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2022)17 Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University…”

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confidence: 99%

Reconciling historical changes in the hydrological cycle over land

et al. 2022

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“…4). Li and Quiring (2021) similarly found P to be the dominant driver of hydrological change. However, in their analysis, Li and Quiring ignore the role of basin water storage to meet short-term water demands created by deficits in P. Here, we capture the influence of climate variability in water storage (as AW) by assuming that water balance changes are governed by changes in P-ET and that these changes are captured by GRACE (Thomas and Famiglietti, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Global assessment of the sensitivity of water storage to hydroclimatic variations

Thomas¹,

Nanteza

2023

Preprint

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<p>Observing basin water storage response due to hydroclimatic fluxes and human water use provides valuable insight into how a basin stores and discharges water.&#160; Quantifying basin storage change attributed to climate and use is critical for water management yet remains a challenge globally.&#160; Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are combined with hydroclimate fluxes of precipitation and evapotranspiration to document the sensitivity of available water storage for global basins.&#160; Our results detect substantial global water storage sensitivity to changes in hydroclimatic fluxes.&#160; Comparison with Budyko-derived metrics substantiate our findings, demonstrating that basin water storage resilience to short-term water deficits is linked to basin partitioning predictability, and uniform seasonality of hydroclimatic fluxes.&#160; Our study demonstrates how small shifts in hydroclimate flux may affect available water storage potentially impacting billions globally.</p>

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“…For over two decades, the APT's underlying methodology has proven useful for determining precipitation normalcy for wetland identification and delineation (Sprecher and Warne 2000;Vepraskas et al 2019). However, the use of precipitation alone negates the physical, spatial, and temporal components of the hydrologic system and the other elements of the hydrologic cycle that can impact aquatic resources (Wu et al 2021;Li and Quiring 2021). The additional components of the hydrologic system are likely to affect wetlands and streams differently.…”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of climatic and hydroclimatic resources to support the US Army Corps of Engineers Regulatory Program

Sparrow¹,

Gutenson²,

Wahl³

et al. 2022

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Short-term climatic and hydrologic interactions, or hydroclimatology, are an important consideration when delineating the geographic extent of aquatic resources and assessing whether an aquatic resource is a jurisdictional water of the United States (WOTUS) and is therefore subject to the Clean Water Act (CWA). The now vacated 2020 Navigable Waters Protection Rule (NWPR) required the evaluation of precipitation and other hydroclimatic conditions to assess the jurisdictional status of an aquatic resource based on normal hydroclimatic conditions. Short-term hydroclimatic conditions, such as antecedent precipitation, evapotranspiration, wetland delineation, and streamflow duration assessments, provide information on an aquatic resource’s geo-graphic extent, hydrologic characteristics, and hydrologic connectivity with other aquatic resources. Here, researchers from the US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) evaluate tools and data available to practitioners for assessing short-term hydroclimatic conditions. The work highlights specific meteorological phenomena that are important to consider when assessing short-term hydroclimatic conditions that affect the geographic extent and hydrologic characteristics of an aquatic resource. The findings suggest that practitioners need access to data and tools that more holistically consider the impact of short-term antecedent hydroclimatology on the entire hydrologic cycle, rather than tools based solely on precipitation.

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Identifying the Dominant Drivers of Hydrological Change in the Contiguous United States

Abstract: Understanding the dominant drivers of hydrological change is essential for water resources management. Currently, climate change and human activities have led to a non-stationary pattern in streamflow, which means the past is not adequate to serve as a guide to the future (

Cited by 29 publications

References 100 publications

Reconciling historical changes in the hydrological cycle over land

Reconciling historical changes in the hydrological cycle over land

Global assessment of the sensitivity of water storage to hydroclimatic variations

Evaluation of climatic and hydroclimatic resources to support the US Army Corps of Engineers Regulatory Program

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