Identifying potential evolutionary consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts

Heard, Matthew J.; Riskin, Shelby H.; Flight, Patrick A.

doi:10.1007/s10682-011-9503-9

Cited by 15 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Despite the proliferation of studies demonstrating climate‐induced phenological shifts, it is unclear how these shifts influence genetic diversity (Heard et al. ). We focused on a single population, but changes in phenology can also influence the distribution of genetic variation across populations if they affect interactions among populations and the probability of gene flow (Franks and Weiss ; Rossetto et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While future research on the impacts of phenological changes on genetic diversity is needed (Heard et al. ; Pauls et al. ), climate‐induced changes in spatial distribution have proven or are predicted to have substantial impacts on genetic diversity (e.g.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite substantial evidence for climate‐induced changes in phenology (Parmesan ), there is little information documenting how these changes influence microevolution within populations (Franks and Weiss ; Heard et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal patterns of genetic variation in a salmon population undergoing rapid change in migration timing

Kovach

Gharrett

Tallmon

2013

Evolutionary Applications

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Though genetic diversity is necessary for population persistence in rapidly changing environments, little is known about how climate‐warming influences patterns of intra‐population genetic variation. For a pink salmon population experiencing increasing temperatures, we used temporal genetic data (microsatellite = 1993, 2001, 2009; allozyme = 1979, 1981, 1983) to quantify the genetic effective population size (N e) and genetic divergence due to differences in migration timing and to estimate whether these quantities have changed over time. We predicted that temporal trends toward earlier migration timing and a corresponding loss of phenotypic variation would decrease genetic divergence based on migration timing and N e. We observed significant genetic divergence based on migration timing and genetic heterogeneity between early‐ and late‐migrating fish. There was also some evidence for divergent selection between early‐ and late‐migrating fish at circadian rhythm genes, but results varied over time. Estimates of N e from multiple methods were large (>1200) and N e/N c generally exceeded 0.2. Despite shifts in migration timing and loss of phenotypic variation, there was no evidence for changes in within‐population genetic divergence or N e over the course of this study. These results suggest that in instances of population stability, genetic diversity may be resistant to climate‐induced changes in migration timing.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal patterns of genetic variation in a salmon population undergoing rapid change in migration timing

Kovach

Gharrett

Tallmon

2013

Evolutionary Applications

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“…Ostensibly, mismatch should entail negative fitness consequences for the consumer, yet relatively little is known about the evolutionary and demographic implications (Both ; Miller‐Rushing et al . ; Heard, Riskin & Flight ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenological mismatch strongly affects individual fitness but not population demography in a woodland passerine

Reed

Jenouvrier

Visser

2012

Journal of Animal Ecology

236

314

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Summary1. Populations are shifting their phenology in response to climate change, but these shifts are often asynchronous among interacting species. Resulting phenological mismatches can drive simultaneous changes in natural selection and population demography, but the links between these interacting processes are poorly understood. 2. Here we analyse 37 years of data from an individual-based study of great tits (Parus major) in the Netherlands and use mixed-effects models to separate the within-and across-year effects of phenological mismatch between great tits and caterpillars (a key food source for developing nestlings) on components of fitness at the individual and population levels. 3. Several components of individual fitness were affected by individual mismatch (i.e. late breeding relative to the caterpillar food peak date), including the probability of doublebrooding, fledgling success, offspring recruitment probability and the number of recruits. Together these effects contributed to an overall negative relationship between relative fitness and laying dates, that is, selection for earlier laying on average. 4. Directional selection for earlier laying was stronger in years where birds bred on average later than the food peak, but was weak or absent in years where the phenology of birds and caterpillars matched (i.e. no population mismatch). 5. The mean number of fledglings per female was lower in years when population mismatch was high, in part because fewer second broods were produced. Population mismatch had a weak effect on the mean number of recruits per female, and no effect on mean adult survival, after controlling for the effects of breeding density and the quality of the autumnal beech (Fagus sylvatica) crop. 6.These findings illustrate how climate change-induced mismatch can have strong effects on the relative fitness of phenotypes within years, but weak effects on mean demographic rates across years. We discuss various general mechanisms that influence the extent of coupling between breeding phenology, selection and population dynamics in open populations subject to strong density regulation and stochasticity.

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“…Indirect effects of climate change on hybridization are little understood (Chunco ). An asynchronic response to climate change may affect the relative frequencies of species and alter their coexistence (Heard, Riskin & Flight ; Sánchez‐Guillén et al . ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic effects on population declines of a rare wetland species and the role of spatial and temporal isolation as barriers to hybridization

et al. 2017

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Summary Climate change and climatic extremes may affect species directly or indirectly. While direct climatic effects have been intensively studied, indirect effects, such as increasing hybridization risk, are poorly understood. The goal of our study was to analyse the impact of climate on population dynamics of a rare habitat specialist, Chorthippus montanus, as well as the fine‐scale spatial overlap with a sympatric habitat generalist, Chorthippus parallelus and the dispersion of hybrids. We were particularly interested in the role of spatiotemporal overlap on heterospecific encounter frequencies. We conducted high‐precision mark‐recapture studies on two sites over 7 years and genotyped 702 individuals of two C. montanus generations to detect hybrids. We tested the performance of three programs (structure, newhybrids and adegenet) and accepted only hybrids detected by the two best performing programs. We then tested for correlations between yearly population trends and climatic variables. Furthermore, we analysed the spatial dispersion of both taxa and the hybrids to calculate variation in spatial and temporal overlap and infer heterospecific encounter probabilities. Our results revealed that droughts during the egg phase and rainy weather during nymphal development were strongly correlated with population declines in the habitat specialist. The highest hybridization rate (19·6%) was found in the population with lowest population size. The combined effects of spatial and temporal niche overlap decreased heterospecific encounter probabilities to 4·2–7·6% compared to 20–28% and 11–19% calculated alone from phenology or spatial overlap respectively. Hybrids were detected in areas of higher heterospecific encounter probability, mainly at the edge of the specialists’ occupied habitat in areas with intermediate soil moisture conditions compared to the parental species. This illustrates that the combination of spatial and temporal segregation provides an effective barrier to hybridization. However, the high hybridization rate in one of the populations suggests that this function may decrease with decreasing population size. This supports the hypothesis that climatic extremes threaten rare species directly by reducing reproductive success and may indirectly increase hybridization risk. A http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.12834/suppinfo is available for this article.

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Identifying potential evolutionary consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts

Cited by 15 publications

References 63 publications

Temporal patterns of genetic variation in a salmon population undergoing rapid change in migration timing

Temporal patterns of genetic variation in a salmon population undergoing rapid change in migration timing

Phenological mismatch strongly affects individual fitness but not population demography in a woodland passerine

Climatic effects on population declines of a rare wetland species and the role of spatial and temporal isolation as barriers to hybridization

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