Identifying optimal sites for natural recovery and restoration of impacted biogenic habitats in a special area of conservation using hydrodynamic and habitat suitability modelling

Abstract

Publisher rights This is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Sea Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Sea Research, Vol. 77, 03/2013 General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Queen's University Belfast Research Portal is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT2 AbstractSelection of sites for successful restoration of impacted shellfish populations depends on understanding the dispersion capability and habitat requirements of the species involved. In Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, the horse mussel (Modiolus modiolus) biogenic reefs cover only a fraction of their historical range with the remaining reefs badly damaged and requiring restoration. Previous experimental trials suggest that translocation of horse mussels accelerate reef recovery and has therefore been proposed as a suitable restoration technique.We used a series of coupled hydrodynamic and particle dispersal models to assess larval dispersion from remnant and translocated populations to identify suitable areas for adult live M. modiolus translocation in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. A maximum entropy model (MAXENT) was used to identify if dispersing larvae could reach habitat suitable for adult M.modiolus. From these we predicted if translocated mussels will reseed themselves or be able to act as larval sources for nearby reefs. The dispersal models showed that the remnant M.modiolus populations are largely self-recruiting with little connectivity between them. The majority of larvae settled near the sources and movement was largely dependent on the tides and not influenced by wind or waves. Higher reef elevation resulted in larvae been able to disperse further away from the release point. However, larval numbers away from the source population are likely to be too low for successful recruitment. There was also little connectivity between the Irish Sea and Strangford Lough as any larvae entering the Lough remained predominantly in the Strangford Na...

Understanding macroalgal dispersal in a complex hydrodynamic environment: a combined population genetic and physical modelling approach

“…A major strength of the developments in current modelling and particle transport lies in their ability to describe ecological processes over a wide range of spatial scales ranging from the sub-metre to the oceanic scale while also incorporating the effects of turbulence. Thus, for example, these approaches have been applied to consider the effect of current flow on benthic distributions in coastal waters [47] and more specifically the effect on the distribution of Modiolus modiolus [48] and also in relation to the influence of current flow perturbations on the benthos adjacent to SeaGen, a full-scale, grid-connected tidal turbine [49]. Although not immediately relevant to the spatial scales considered in this study, the modelling approaches could also conceivably be applied in open ocean situations where they will have more relevance to evolutionary time scales.…”

Modelling present and future global distributions of razor clams (Bivalvia: Solenidae)

“…We used one observation point per 0.083° pixel, to eliminate any duplicate points and reduce clumping. Models were created with 10 bootstrap replicates using default parameters for a random seed: randomly select 75% of the species presence records for training and 25% for testing the model in each replication stage [37,43]. Then the average predictions across the all replicates were used for further analysis.…”

“…For the future projections, 10 cross-validated replicate models were generated. Default parameters including hinge features, random test percentage of zero [37,43], and the other settings were the same as in the present day modelling.…”

“…A map of environment suitability for Solenidae was generated to reflect the predicted probability of species occurrence using ArcGIS v10 [36,43]. The model often predicted suitable environment in areas that were not contiguous with species' present distributions.…”

Integrating Larval Dispersal, Permitting, and Logistical Factors Within a Validated Habitat Suitability Index for Oyster Restoration

“…These models have included many factors relevant to oyster biology and subsidence of artificial reefs, such as salinity and sediment type. However, these models have generally not included larval dispersal relevant to recruitment dynamics and population persistence (but see ElsaBer et al, 2013), permitting factors relevant to restoration permit acquisition, or logistical factors relevant to material deployment and public access. Furthermore, validation is often absent from HSI models for oyster restoration and where present, is generally based on a single year of data (e.g., density or production Soniat and Brody, 1988;Cho et al, 2012;Theuerkauf and Lipcius, 2016), which may not reflect long-term population persistence.…”