Identifying, framing and managing uncertainties in project portfolios

Martinsuo, Miia; Korhonen, Tuomas; Laine, Teemu

doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.01.014

Cited by 100 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Moreover, the quality and variety of materials and goods used in a project [73,74], number of active labor force and salaries [75][76][77] and experience and scientific levels of employees in the project [78,79] are amongst other effective measures of project performance. Risks and operational risks, in particular, are also important indicators that many researchers have taken into account [23,63,80]. In addition, research and development (R & D) and related costs are identified as influential parameters in improving project performance [81,82].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A fast, continuous, timely and data-based decision-making process can lead to improved productivity; particularly as today's global demand for energy and environmental constraints have forced oil and gas projects to enhance their activities in terms of efficiency and effectiveness [18]. In addition, similar to other projects, oil and gas well-drilling projects deal with inherent uncertainties [22] that are generally arisen from environmental factors, organizational complexities, as well as changes, deviations and events occurring in a project [23]. Accordingly, oil and gas projects face various risks and complexities that make the decision-making process so difficult [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Projects Using an Interval–Valued Fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Method: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Well Drilling Projects

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The beginning of the 21st-century resulted in a more developed multi-attribute decisionmaking (MADM) tool and inspired new application areas that have resulted in discoveries in sustainable construction and building life cycle analysis. Construction and civil engineering stand for the central axis of a body consisting of a multidisciplinary (multi-dimensional) world with ties to disciplines constituting the surface, and with the disciplines, as a consequence, tied to each other. When dealing with multi-attribute decision-making problems generally multiple solutions exist, especially when there is a large number of attributes, and the concept of Pareto-optimality is inefficient. The symmetry and structural regularity are essential concepts in many natural and man-made objects and play a crucial role in the design, engineering, and development of the world. The complexity and risks inherent in projects along with different effective indicators for success and failure may contribute to the difficulties in performance evaluation. In such situations, increasing the importance of uncertainty is observed. This paper proposes a novel integrated tool to find a balance between sustainable development, environmental impact and human well-being, i.e., to find symmetry axe with respect to goals, risks, and constraints (attributes) to cope with the complicated problems. The concept of "optimal solution" as the maximum degree of implemented goals (attributes) is very important. The model is built using the most relevant variables cited in the reviewed project literature and integrates two methods: the Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method and a novel interval-valued fuzzy extension of the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method. This model was used to solve real case study of oil and gas well drilling projects evaluation. Despite the importance of oil and gas well drilling projects, there is lack of literature that describes and evaluates performance in this field projects. On the other hand, no structured assessment methodology has been presented for these types of projects. Given the limited research on performance evaluation in oil & gas well-drilling projects, the research identifies a set of performance criteria and proposes an evaluation model using fuzzy Delphi method. An illustrative example shows that the proposed method is a useful and alternative decision-making method.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Approach for Evaluation of Projects Using an Interval–Valued Fuzzy Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) Method: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Well Drilling Projects

et al. 2018

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“…This perception has opened a new research area in the literature: the management of this version of uncertainty. Available studies discuss this subject both from a theoretical [45][46][47] and empirical point of view [48]. The second significant aspect of risk management involves the consideration of risk as an event that not only generates hazards, but also reveals opportunities that may be taken by the organisation [5,9,12].…”

Section: Project Portfolio Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shedding New Light on Project Portfolio Risk Management

2017

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This paper constitutes an innovative attempt to analyse the risks and negative phenomena dependencies within a project portfolio. Based on the available literature, the risks and negative phenomena (that is, the problems with the availability of resources, interpersonal conflicts, irregularities in the portfolio balance, etc.) specific to a project portfolio were identified. Theoretical constructs were then used to connect the identified risks with the negative phenomena. Structural equations were used to confirm the existence and quality of these constructs, as well as models describing connections between phenomena. The determination of the structural equations also provided a setting in which statistical methods (χ 2 , RMSEA and CFI) could be used to investigate the level of fit of the constructs and models to the empirical data.

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“…In a study, (Abbasianjahromi and Rajaie, 2013) proposed a hybrid model based on fuzzy and goal linear planning and calculated the projects' risk value by weighing the method and finally calculated the optimal point of risk and income balance based on the current status of the company and previous successful experiences. (Martinsuo et al, 2014) proposed a framework for uncertainties and their management in project portfolios and discussed how managers can better take uncertainty into account in their planning. In an article, (Abbassi et al, 2014) developed an integrated framework for research project evaluation through the system theory approach and using the results of a technology roadmap.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%