Identifying dynamic tuberculosis case-finding policies for HIV/TB coepidemics

Yaesoubi, Reza; Cohen, Ted

doi:10.1073/pnas.1218770110

Cited by 35 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Our results, consistent with a previous theoretical model [33], also suggest that our current willingness to pay for active TB case finding may be too low. For example, the Figure 4 Epidemiologic and economic impact of sustained active case finding over 10 years.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

How much is tuberculosis screening worth? Estimating the value of active case finding for tuberculosis in South Africa, China, and India

2014

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BackgroundCurrent approaches are unlikely to achieve the aggressive global tuberculosis (TB) control targets set for 2035 and beyond. Active case finding (ACF) may be an important tool for augmenting existing strategies, but the cost-effectiveness of ACF remains uncertain. Program evaluators can often measure the cost of ACF per TB case detected, but how this accessible measure translates into traditional metrics of cost-effectiveness, such as the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY), remains unclear.MethodsWe constructed dynamic models of TB in India, China, and South Africa to explore the medium-term impact and cost-effectiveness of generic ACF activities, conceptualized separately as discrete (2-year) campaigns and as continuous activities integrated into ongoing TB control programs. Our primary outcome was the cost per DALY, measured in relationship to the cost per TB case actively detected and started on treatment.ResultsDiscrete campaigns costing up to $1,200 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 850–2,043) per case actively detected and started on treatment in India, $3,800 (95% UR 2,706–6,392) in China, and $9,400 (95% UR 6,957–13,221) in South Africa were all highly cost-effective (cost per DALY averted less than per capita gross domestic product). Prolonged integration was even more effective and cost-effective. Short-term assessments of ACF dramatically underestimated potential longer term gains; for example, an assessment of an ACF program at 2 years might find a non-significant 11% reduction in prevalence, but a 10-year evaluation of that same intervention would show a 33% reduction.ConclusionsACF can be a powerful and highly cost-effective tool in the fight against TB. Given that short-term assessments may dramatically underestimate medium-term effectiveness, current willingness to pay may be too low. ACF should receive strong consideration as a basic tool for TB control in most high-burden settings, even when it may cost over $1,000 to detect and initiate treatment for each extra case of active TB.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0216-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

How much is tuberculosis screening worth? Estimating the value of active case finding for tuberculosis in South Africa, China, and India

2014

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“…The conclusions of this study cannot be extended straightforwardly to make predictions on the impact of contact investigation in high-burden countries. Adaptation of the model to local socio-demographic and epidemiological data will be needed for this purpose, and specific local issues need to be considered, including high HIV burden [41], emergence of TB drug resistance [42] and the effect of strategies for actively finding TB cases [43]. …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas

Guzzetta

Ajelli

Yang

et al. 2015

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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Comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis (TB) control is still lacking. In this study, we use a computational model, calibrated against notification data from Arkansas during the period 2001–2011, that reproduces independent data on key features of TB transmission and epidemiology. The model estimates that the Arkansas contact investigations program has avoided 18.6% (12.1–25.9%) of TB cases and 23.7% (16.4–30.6%) of TB deaths that would have occurred during 2001–2014 if passive diagnosis alone were implemented. If contacts of sputum smear-negative cases had not been included in the program, the percentage reduction would have been remarkably lower. In addition, we predict that achieving national targets for performance indicators of contact investigation programs has strong potential to further reduce TB transmission and burden. However, contact investigations are expected to have limited effectiveness on avoiding reactivation cases of latent infections over the next 60 years.

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“…где rand(0, 1) -это случайное число, равномерно распределенное на [0, 1]. Вывод формул (11)(12)(13)(14) см. в Приложении.…”

Section: с вероятностьюunclassified

Comparison Of Modeling Schemes for Natural Course Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Avilov¹,

Romanyukha²,

Belilovsky³

et al. 2019

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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In construction of mathematical models of propagation and control of pulmonary tuberculosis, presence or absence of bacterioexcretion is often used as the marker of disease severity. There are two major schemes of modeling for natural corse of tuberculosis. The first one is so called parallel scheme, the more frequently used, which assumes that a fraction of incident cases develops bacterioexcretion rapidly and retains it till the end of the disease. The second one is serial scheme, the less often used one, which assumes that tuberculosis always starts without bactrioexcretion, and then a fraction of cases progresses to the bacterioexcretion stage. In this article, we compare these two modeling schemes on the basis of their fit to the real data from Moscow city, 2013-2018, which contain information on time and results of the last fluorography examination of the detected tuberculosis cases and their health condition at the moment of detection. Such data limit the possible duration of the disease, and, thus, permit an estimation of the dynamics of progression to bacterioexcretion for untreated tuberculosis. We have developed an agent-based model with realistic profiles of mortality and undergoing fluorography examinations and with an analog of the traditional compartmental model of natural history of tuberculosis on the basis of ordinary differential equations. On the basis of computational experiments with the model, the serial modelling scheme turned out to be closer to reality. On the other hand, due to the bad fit to the real data, we concluded that both the detection submodel and the submodel of natural course of pulmonary tuberculosis should be redesigned.

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Identifying dynamic tuberculosis case-finding policies for HIV/TB coepidemics

Cited by 35 publications

References 38 publications

How much is tuberculosis screening worth? Estimating the value of active case finding for tuberculosis in South Africa, China, and India

How much is tuberculosis screening worth? Estimating the value of active case finding for tuberculosis in South Africa, China, and India

Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas

Comparison Of Modeling Schemes for Natural Course Of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

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