IDENTIFYING DETERMINANTS OF RETENTION DECISIONS¹

Abstract

Variables from five domains—demography, social background, service history, satisfaction, and performance—were used in a discriminant analysis approach to distinguishing three groups of naval personnel: Those eligible to reenlist who do, those eligible who do not, and those not eligible. Discriminant weights were derived from a sample of 642 first‐term enlisted men and cross‐validated on a sample of 628. The results indicated that both pre‐service characteristics (demography and social background) and in‐service experiences (service history, satisfaction, and performance) contributed importantly to prediction of attrition/retention. Potential usefulness of this method, including implications for better understanding and control of manpower turnover were discussed.

A Review of the Literature on Attrition from the Military Services: Risk Factors for Attrition and Strategies to Reduce Attrition

“…Other tests examining general knowledge have also been associated with attrition, individuals scoring lower on the Navy General Classification Test (GCT) were at much higher first-term attrition risk than those scoring higher (153,200). McCraw and Bearden (173) found that recruits in Air Force Technical Training reporting to the mental health clinic were 2.1 times more likely to be discharged if their Intelligence Quotient was below 100 compared to above 116.…”

“…Most studies show that service members who are married or have dependents are more likely to exit the service before completion of their enlistment contracts when compared to non-married service members (61,64,67,70,82,114,150,153,172). The higher first-term attrition among married service members is independent of age, gender, or race with one exception: married and single Black women have similar first-term attrition (70).…”

“…Most studies show that older age is associated with higher attrition (25,36,114,145,148,150,153,163,196,199,200,244,253,268). but some studies show no relationship (67,133,205), no consistent relationship (43,60,172), or actually show that younger individuals are more likely to attrite (64,91), Much of USACHPPM Project No.…”

“…Studies that have performed multivariate analysis have found that expulsions from school independently increased the risk of first-temi attrition when other potential attrition risk factors were included in the model such as demographics, service satisfaction variables, education, family stability measures, physical health measures, and cognitive test scores (20,153,154,199), Other risk factors for basic training attrition included self-reports of being charged with or suspected of a crime (106), traffic violations, times late for school (153), fighting while intoxicated, rebelliousness (244), and being arrested for a crime (20,154,253). Self-reported fighting while intoxicated was an independent risk factor for psychiatric/behavioral and legal discharges but not medical or inadequate performance discharges (244), Self-reported rebelliousness was an independent risk factor for attrition of all types (244), Self-reported arrest for a crime was independently related only to behavioral attrition (20).…”

“…Several studies have shown that self-reported past expulsions or suspensions from school were risk factors for attrition (20,106,153,154,199). Studies that have performed multivariate analysis have found that expulsions from school independently increased the risk of first-temi attrition when other potential attrition risk factors were included in the model such as demographics, service satisfaction variables, education, family stability measures, physical health measures, and cognitive test scores (20,153,154,199), Other risk factors for basic training attrition included self-reports of being charged with or suspected of a crime (106), traffic violations, times late for school (153), fighting while intoxicated, rebelliousness (244), and being arrested for a crime (20,154,253).…”