Identifying Deposits' Outflows in Real-Time

Abstract

We propose a method based on control charts to identify in real-time sudden deposits' outflows through payment systems. The performance of the methodology is assessed using both Monte Carlo simulations and real transaction-level TARGET2 data for a large sample of Italian banks. We identify a set of idiosyncratic bank stress episodes and show that deposits are generally shifted to other banks, mainly large and domestic ones, generating a size premium; only a limited amount migrates to foreign banks. Under the fixed-rate, full allotment regime, the liquidity drain is mostly offset through open market operations.