Identifying cost-effective invasive species control to enhance endangered species populations in the Grand Canyon, USA

Bair, Lucas S.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Springborn, Michael; Reimer, Matthew N.; Bond, Craig A.; Coggins, Lewis G.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.01.032

Cited by 11 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(4 reference statements)

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“…Decreased fitness and population viability have been observed in other stream salmonid populations with the loss of large migratory individuals (Morita and Yokota 2002;Budy et al 2017). Recolonization from outside of removal areas is a com-monly cited cause of failure in invasive suppression efforts (e.g., Franssen et al 2014;Bair et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Annual costs to agencies of streamwide suppression in our study ranged from approximately US$266 000 to $336 000. While suppression is difficult and costly, improvements in demographic vital rates of native or endangered fishes may be expected when invasive fishes are reduced in density (Peterson et al 2008;Bair et al 2018;Pennock et al 2018). The suppression of invasive predators and competitors in shrinking aquatic habitats may be critical to the preservation or restoration of these unique and imperiled desert native fish assemblages (Williams et al 1985;Mueller 2005;Propst et al 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Remarkable response of native fishes to invasive trout suppression varies with trout density, temperature, and annual hydrology

Healy

Schelly

Yackulic

et al. 2020

Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.

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Recovery of imperiled fishes can be achieved through suppression of invasives, but outcomes may vary with environmental conditions. We studied the response of imperiled desert fishes to an invasive brown and rainbow trout suppression program in a Colorado River tributary, with natural flow and longitudinal variation in thermal characteristics. We investigated trends in fish populations related to suppression, and tested hypotheses about the impacts of salmonid densities, hydrologic variation, and spatial-thermal gradients on the distribution and abundance of native fish species using zero-inflated generalized-linear mixed-effects models. Between 2012 and 2018, salmonids declined 89%, and native fishes increased dramatically (~480%) once trout suppression surpassed ~60%. Temperature and trout density were consistently retained in the top models predicting the abundance and distribution of native fishes. The greatest increases occurred in warmer reaches and in years with spring flooding. Surprisingly, given the evolution of native fishes in disturbance-prone systems, intense, monsoon-driven flooding limited native fish recruitment. Applied concertedly, invasive species suppression, and efforts to mimic natural flow and thermal regimes may allow rapid and widespread native fish recovery.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remarkable response of native fishes to invasive trout suppression varies with trout density, temperature, and annual hydrology

Healy

Schelly

Yackulic

et al. 2020

Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.

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“…Nonetheless, the scenarios presented here are fairly crude, and ongoing work is focused on more refined questions, such as determining the most cost‐effective ways to meet population targets under uncertainty (Bair et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As such, the range of scenarios presented reasonably bracket expectations for rainbow trout and adult humpback chub in the absence of substantial changes in environmental factors (e.g., temperatures above 15°C, introduction of other nonnative species, etc.). Nonetheless, the scenarios presented here are fairly crude, and ongoing work is focused on more refined questions, such as determining the most costeffective ways to meet population targets under uncertainty (Bair et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

Yackulic

Korman²,

Yard

et al. 2018

Ecology

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Introduced species are frequently implicated in declines of native species. In many cases, however, evidence linking introduced species to native declines is weak. Failure to make strong inferences regarding the role of introduced species can hamper attempts to predict population viability and delay effective management responses. For many species, mark-recapture analysis is the more rigorous form of demographic analysis. However, to our knowledge, there are no mark-recapture models that allow for joint modeling of interacting species. Here, we introduce a two-species mark-recapture population model in which the vital rates (and capture probabilities) of one species are allowed to vary in response to the abundance of the other species. We use a simulation study to explore bias and choose an approach to model selection. We then use the model to investigate species interactions between endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) and introduced rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River between 2009 and 2016. In particular, we test hypotheses about how two environmental factors (turbidity and temperature), intraspecific density dependence, and rainbow trout abundance are related to survival, growth, and capture of juvenile humpback chub. We also project the long-term effects of different rainbow trout abundances on adult humpback chub abundances. Our simulation study suggests this approach has minimal bias under potentially challenging circumstances (i.e., low capture probabilities) that characterized our application and that model selection using indicator variables could reliably identify the true generating model even when process error was high. When the model was applied to rainbow trout and humpback chub, we identified negative relationships between rainbow trout abundance and the survival, growth, and capture probability of juvenile humpback chub. Effects on interspecific interactions on survival and capture probability were strongly supported, whereas support for the growth effect was weaker. Environmental factors were also identified to be important and in many cases stronger than interspecific interactions, and there was still substantial unexplained variation in growth and survival rates. The general approach presented here for combining mark-recapture data for two species is applicable in many other systems and could be modified to model abundance of the invader via other modeling approaches.

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“…One common approach is to use simulation. For example, Bair et al (2018) solve for the cost-minimizing policy to achieve viability of an endangered species over a given time horizon with a specified confidence. This involves generating a large block of simulations for every candidate policy in a large set.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety in Numbers: Cost-effective Endangered Species Management for Viable Populations

et al. 2019

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We develop a bioeconomic model to identify the cost-effective control of an invasive species (rainbow trout) to achieve a population viability goal for an endangered species (humpback chub) in the Grand Canyon of the U.S. southwest. Solving the population viability problem is difficult since avoiding a threshold with a given confidence imposes a probabilistic restriction on joint outcomes (survival) over many periods. We develop a novel dynamic programming solution approach that is fast and forgoes the simulation method requirement of imposing structure on the policy function. We also investigate an adaptive management model that incorporates learning about uncertain biological dynamics.

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Identifying cost-effective invasive species control to enhance endangered species populations in the Grand Canyon, USA

Cited by 11 publications

References 25 publications

Remarkable response of native fishes to invasive trout suppression varies with trout density, temperature, and annual hydrology

Remarkable response of native fishes to invasive trout suppression varies with trout density, temperature, and annual hydrology

Inferring species interactions through joint mark–recapture analysis

Safety in Numbers: Cost-effective Endangered Species Management for Viable Populations

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