Identifying Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activity to Changes in Runoff Using Epoch Detection and Hydrologic Simulation

Wang, G. Q.; Zhang, J. Y.; Pagano, T. S.; Lin, Jian; Liu, C. S.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000559

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Changes in stream flow of the Yellow River basin could be linked with climate change and human activities. Wang et al (2013a), for example, found that human activities play a principal role in runoff reduction of the Kuye River catchment located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, but the reduction in the absolute runoff level likely results from climate change.…”

Section: Variations Of the Recorded Discharges During 1950-2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies on this topic show that (1) widely used climate change scenarios generally include hypothetical scenarios, SRES climate projections, and RCPs climate scenarios (Roger et al 2005;Hans 2007;Bao et al 2012;Hidalgo et al 2013;Wang et al 2013b) and (2) hydrological models are a viable tool to assess potential impacts of climate change on regional water regimes (Xie et al, 2007;Zhang et al 2013). Lumped conceptual hydrological models are often applied to small-or medium-scale catchments (Gleick 1987;Arnell 1999;Roger et al 2005;Wang et al 2013a), while distributed hydrological models are widely used for largescale catchments (Xie et al 2007;Wang et al 2012;Bao et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Wang

Zhang

Jin

et al. 2015

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021-2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039-0.056°C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28-3.29 % compared with the 1991-2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021-2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53-9.67 % relative to 1991-2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model's projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.

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Section: Variations Of the Recorded Discharges During 1950-2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Wang

Zhang

Jin

et al. 2015

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Under the premise of the independence of both factors, how to quantitatively distinguish the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff is a hot topic researched by hydrologists. The research methods for quantitatively separating and judging the impacts of climate and human activities on runoff include long-series data comparative analysis [5], comparative test analysis [6], itemized computation combination [7], the elastic coefficient method [8], hydrological simulation, and other methods [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RCCC-WBM Model for Calculating the Impact of Abrupt Temperature Change and Warming Hiatus on Surface Runoff in China

Huang,

Ma,

Liu

et al. 2023

Water

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The global climate shows an obvious warming trend, and the impact on water resources is increasing. Abrupt temperature change and warming hiatus are two important states of temperature change. The quantitative impacts of temperature change and warming hiatus on surface runoff remain unclear. Based on the measured runoff data from 60 representative hydrological stations in China from 1956 to 2016 and the Water Balance Model developed by the Research Center for Climate Change (RCCC-WBC), this paper analyzes the quantitative impacts of abrupt temperature change and warming hiatus on surface runoff. The results showed that the effects of three types of abrupt temperature changes on runoff in different basins in China are significantly different. The effects of abrupt temperature changes and warming stagnation on runoff in northern China are greater than those in southern China, and the effects of abrupt temperature changes and warming stagnation on runoff in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the same basin are also different. Before the abrupt change in temperature, the influence of temperature on the surface runoff was less than 9%, and the influence of temperature on the runoff in some southern areas was weaker, only affecting less than 3% of the runoff. When the temperature changes abruptly, the influence of air temperature on the surface runoff in a small part of the arid region is up to 30%. The abrupt change in mean maximum temperature has both positive and negative driving effects on runoff in China, and the negative driving effect is concentrated in the areas with abrupt warming, affecting about 8% of the runoff on average. The average influence of abrupt mean temperature change on runoff in China is about 10%, and the area with a large influence on runoff change is concentrated in the area north of 40° N. The abrupt change in temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin has a great influence on the runoff change, up to 13%. The maximum impact of abrupt mean minimum temperature on runoff is concentrated in Northeast China, ranging from 9% to 12%. During the period of temperature stagnation, air temperature and runoff showed an obvious reverse trend. During this period, the average negative influence of drastic changes in air temperature on runoff was about 15%, but precipitation and runoff still maintained a good consistency, which may be due to the effect of other influencing factors which offset the negative driving effect of air temperature.

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“…[4]. Changes in the climatic process in the watershed of spring/rain-fed rivers may lead to the drying up of sorings and can alter the land use, These changes impact the hydrological properties of soil, surface and sub-surface flow dynamics, and the frequency of floods [3,5]. Urbanization exacerbates the problem by allowing less infiltration and intensifying surface runoff by decreasing the time lag between rainfall and surface runoff [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative geomorphometric approach to understand the hydrological behaviour and identification of the Erosion prone areas of a coastal watershed using RS and GIS tools

et al. 2022

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Assessment of the geomorphometric parameters using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools forms an important part in routing the runoff and other hydrological processes. The current study uses a geospatial model based on geomorphometric parameters for the categorization of surface runoff and identification of the erosion-prone areas in the watershed of the Kuttiyadi River. The 4th order Kuttiyadi river is dominated by a dendritic to semi-dendritic drainage pattern in the subwatersheds. The linear aspect of the subwatersheds indicates towards the presence of permeable surface and subsurface materials with uniform lithology. The aerial and relief aspects of the subwatersheds shows fine drainage texture, gentle slopes, delayed peak flow, flatter hydrograph, and large concentration time which shows that subwatersheds are quite capable of managing flash floods during storm events. The estimated values of surface runoff (Q) and sediment production rate (SPR) are range from 2.13 to 32.88 km2-cm/km2 and 0.0004–0.017 Ha-m/100km2/year respectively and suggest that Subwatershed 1 (SW1) will generate more surface runoff and is prone to soil erosion followed by subwatershed 2 (SW2) in comparison to other subwatersheds. This paper aims to fill the knowledge gap regarding categorization of flow and erosion dynamics in a coastal river watershed. We believe that our work may work help in providing the crucial information for decision-makers and policymakers responsible for establishing suitable policies and sustainable land use practices for the watershed.

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Identifying Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activity to Changes in Runoff Using Epoch Detection and Hydrologic Simulation

Cited by 23 publications

References 12 publications

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

RCCC-WBM Model for Calculating the Impact of Abrupt Temperature Change and Warming Hiatus on Surface Runoff in China

Comparative geomorphometric approach to understand the hydrological behaviour and identification of the Erosion prone areas of a coastal watershed using RS and GIS tools

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