Identifying a robust method to build RCMs ensemble as climate forcing for hydrological impact models

Improvement of Hydroclimatic Projections over Southeast Spain by Applying a Novel RCM Ensemble Approach

“…Due to the difficulty for assessing the convergence criterion, because the reference probability density functions (PDFs) for future climate are not known, several authors [21,23,48] eliminated R D from the definition of reliability factor.…”

“…In the present work, the estimation of the reliability factor R i is addressed by a novel approach based on seasonal and yearly cumulative density probabilities (CDFs), proposed by [23] as follows:…”

“…The revisited REA method [23] was proposed to build the RCM ensembles of temperature and precipitation. The REA method has been applied in several studies [16,[45][46][47].…”

“…On the other hand, the use of weighted averages where the model weight depends on some measure of performance, and several techniques to assess the performance of each model, are widely applied [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. Considering this last approach, the performance of two novel approaches to build RCM ensembles of monthly precipitation over Spain was evaluated [23]. While [23] found the best ensemble approximation was based on the modified Reliability Ensemble average method [16,21] for weighting the ensemble RCM members.…”

“…Considering this last approach, the performance of two novel approaches to build RCM ensembles of monthly precipitation over Spain was evaluated [23]. While [23] found the best ensemble approximation was based on the modified Reliability Ensemble average method [16,21] for weighting the ensemble RCM members.…”