Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change

Jin, Yufang; Goulden, Michael L.; Faivre, Nicolas; Veraverbeke, Sander; Sun, Fengpeng; Hall, Alex; Hand, Michael S.; Hook, Simon J.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005

Cited by 93 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The FWTs are the result of the linkage between instantaneous and antecedent regional weather patterns and theirs impacts on fire behavior. For instance, two main FWTs are generally observed in crown fires in forests and shrublands: wind-driven and heat-induced (Rothermel, 1991;Flannigan and Wotton, 2001;Jin et al, 2015;Duane et al, 2015;Ruffault et al, 2016Cardil et al, 2017). Wind-driven fires are dominated by strong winds that accelerate the rate of spread.…”

Section: Western Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

Ruffault

Curt²,

Martin‐StPaul

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

141

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Abstract. Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that had not been explored before and resulting from specific interactions between different types of drought and different fire weather types. In 2016, a long-lasting "press drought" intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a "hot drought" combining a heat wave with a press drought intensified heat-induced fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and lead to a higher frequency of extremes wildfires events.

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Section: Western Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wind-driven fires are dominated by strong winds that accelerate the rate of spread. In contrast, heatinduced fires are linked to anomalously warm conditions that increase fuel dryness (Jin et al, 2015;Ruffault et al, 2016).…”

Section: Western Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

Ruffault

Curt²,

Martin‐StPaul

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

141

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…By contrast, non-Santa Ana fires predominately occur during the summer months when synoptic-scale winds are generally weak. Several recent studies have begun to demonstrate the distinctions between these two regimes, including modeling their dominant drivers and socioeconomic impacts [7,[11][12][13], but they have not yet delineated spatial extents to determine if well-defined boundaries exist between regimes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These wildfire disasters are characterized by both civilian and firefighter fatalities, extensive loss of homes and infrastructure, and state or federal declarations of a disaster area due to the widespread losses and economic impacts [1,13]. As southwestern California has experienced more wildfire disasters than anywhere else in the US [14], it is critical to improving our understanding of wildfires in this region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Distribution of Wildfires Ignited under Katabatic versus Non-Katabatic Winds in Mediterranean Southern California USA

Kolden

Abatzoglou

2018

Fire

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Wildfires are a major hazard to humans in the southern California Mediterranean ecosystem and improving our understanding and delineation of different fire regimes is critical to mitigating wildfire-related hazards. Recent research has demonstrated that there are two distinct fire regimes in this region based on the presence or absence of katabatic winds (primarily Santa Ana winds) concurrent with the fire. Here, we expand the katabatic wind category to include Sundowner winds along the Santa Barbara front range and analyze the spatial relationships and difference in ignition sources between fires associated with katabatic and non-katabatic wind events from 1948-2017. We found distinct spatial extents for katabatic versus non-katabatic fires, with areas of the higher number of repeat fires generally associated with one fire type or the other. These spatial delineations were consistent with prior analyses of katabatic wind patterns and were also related to the climatology of marine influences across the region. Finally, we contextualize the burn perimeter of the 2017 Thomas Fire, the largest fire in modern California history, relative to spatial patterns of katabatic and non-katabatic fires. The 2017 Thomas Fire began during the longest Santa Ana event in the last 70 years in an area that has been burned repeatedly by Santa Ana fires. However, the Thomas Fire ultimately burned into a region where there were no prior Santa Ana fires. The spatial delineation of two relatively distinct fire regimes is critical to making management decisions, such as where to locate suppression resources at critical times and where fuel treatments might be most effective. However, the anomalous pattern of the Thomas Fire also points to the potential for changes in anthropogenic and environmental factors to disrupt historical spatial patterns and suggests that spatial patterns of fire regimes are themselves prospective metrics of global change.

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“…From observation and experience, the two weather variables that contribute most toward fire growth during a Santa Ana wind event are wind velocity and the amount of dry air present near the surface. To illustrate this concept, we examined the difference between two Southern California fire regimes (Jin et al 2015) consisting of fire activity during the summer, versus only during the fall when Santa Ana winds begin to increase in frequency (Figs. 2 and 3).…”

Section: Methodsology a Large Fire Potential: Weather Componentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index: Methodology and Operational Implementation

Rolinski

Capps

Fovell

et al. 2016

Weather and Forecasting

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Santa Ana winds, common to Southern California from the fall through early spring, are a type of downslope windstorm originating from a direction generally ranging from 3608/08 to 1008 and are usually accompanied by very low humidity. Since fuel conditions tend to be driest from late September through the middle of November, Santa Ana winds occurring during this time have the greatest potential to produce large, devastating fires upon ignition. Such catastrophic fires occurred in 1993, 2003, 2007, and 2008. Because of the destructive nature of such fires, there has been a growing desire to categorize Santa Ana wind events in much the same way that tropical cyclones have been categorized. The Santa Ana wildfire threat index (SAWTI) is a tool for categorizing Santa Ana wind events with respect to anticipated fire potential. The latest version of the index has been a result of a three-and-a-half-year collaboration effort between the USDA Forest Service, the San Diego Gas and Electric utility (SDG&E), and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). The SAWTI uses several meteorological and fuel moisture variables at 3-km resolution as input to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to generate the index out to 6 days. In addition to the index, a 30-yr climatology of weather, fuels, and the SAWTI has been developed to help put current and future events into perspective. This paper outlines the methodology for developing the SAWTI, including a discussion on the various datasets employed and its operational implementation.

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Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change

Cited by 93 publications

References 35 publications

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

Spatial Distribution of Wildfires Ignited under Katabatic versus Non-Katabatic Winds in Mediterranean Southern California USA

The Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index: Methodology and Operational Implementation

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