Identification of Tropical‐Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

Vries, Andries Jan de; Ouwersloot, H. G.; Feldstein, Steven B.; Riemer, Michael; Kenawy, Ahmed El; McCabe, Matthew F.; Lelieveld, Jos

doi:10.1002/2017jd027587

Cited by 57 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 118 publications

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“…We found that the composite of SLP during the negative phases of NAO and AO are characterized by positive SLP anomalies over Iceland, and negative SLP anomalies over the Azores High, for all seasons, except summer (which exhibit weaker anomalies). The negative phase of AO/NAO decreases the pressure gradient between the extra‐tropical and polar North Atlantic, resulting in a weakening of the Asian westerly jet stream over North Africa and the Middle East (de Vries et al ., ). This decreases the number of western disturbances, causing less precipitation and increasing the temperatures over the AP (Yadav et al ., ; de Vries et al ., ).…”

Section: Links Of Sat To Dominant Circulation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

Attada

Dasari

Chowdary

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the long-term variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arabian Peninsula (AP), using data from the Climate Research Unit (TS 3.22) for the 1960-2010 period. The long-term climatology suggests that the warmest AP mean temperatures occur during summer, with the highest temperatures over the northern AP (NAP), due to the monsoon-desert mechanism. During winter, the NAP exhibits low SATs under the influence of western disturbances originating from the Mediterranean. The southwestern AP exhibits the lowest temperatures because of its proximity to the Arabian Sea cold waters, and also because of the orographic effects. The inter-annual variability of the SAT is stronger during winters. A linear trend analysis reveals a significant increase in the SAT anomaly (0.10 C/decade) across the AP, consistently with the global temperature anomalies. Besides the local convective heating, summer SAT variability is associated with the weakening of the Asian jet stream and a Rossby wave train from the Indian Ocean. This variability is also influenced by the anomalous low pressure over the North Atlantic and the Sahara, a high-pressure system over Siberia and the northwest Pacific. Both in spring and autumn, sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the Indo-western Pacific are highly influenced the AP SATs, whereas winter SATs are modulated by the subtropical jet stream and the Middle East jet stream. In all seasons, the AP SAT is strongly influenced by the SST variations over the tropical oceans. The temperature variability is closely associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The warm phase of ENSO (i.e., El Niño) is one possible reason behind the inter-annual increase in SAT over the southern AP. The negative phases of NAO and AO also play a role in increasing AP SAT.

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Section: Links Of Sat To Dominant Circulation Patternsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

Attada

Dasari

Chowdary

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The RST is a temporary extension of the African/Sudanese Low, characterized by a low-pressure tongue extending northward over the Red Sea toward the Eastern Mediterranean and its surroundings. The active RST (ARST) is linked to an intensified Arabian Anticyclone in the southeastern margin of the Arabian Peninsula, which enhances moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden toward the Red Sea (e.g., Dasari et al, 2018;de Vries et al, 2016de Vries et al, , 2018. The RST systems are classified as nonactive, associated with hot and dry weather conditions, and active, associated with heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the Middle East (e.g., de Vries et al, 2013;Krichak et al, 2012;Shentsis et al, 2012;Tsvieli & Zangvil, 2005.…”

Section: Large-scale Slp Pattern During Westward Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RST systems are classified as nonactive, associated with hot and dry weather conditions, and active, associated with heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the Middle East (e.g., de Vries et al, 2013;Krichak et al, 2012;Shentsis et al, 2012;Tsvieli & Zangvil, 2005. The active RST (ARST) is linked to an intensified Arabian Anticyclone in the southeastern margin of the Arabian Peninsula, which enhances moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden toward the Red Sea (e.g., Dasari et al, 2018;de Vries et al, 2016de Vries et al, , 2018. Three significant differences in the SLP pattern exist when the winds are predominantly westward over the northern Red Sea in relation to the winter composite ( Figure 6).…”

Section: Large-scale Slp Pattern During Westward Wind Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaporative Implications of Dry‐Air Outbreaks Over the Northern Red Sea

2019

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We investigate the impacts of westward wind events on the Red Sea evaporation using the 35‐year second Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis and a 2‐year‐long record of in situ observations from a heavily instrumented air‐sea interaction mooring. These events are common during boreal winter, and their effects are similar to cold‐air outbreaks that occur in midpolar and subpolar latitudes. They cause extreme heat loss from the sea, which is dominated by latent heat fluxes. Different from cold‐air outbreaks, the intensified heat loss is due to the low relative humidity as we show through latent heat flux decomposition. Rainfall is negligible during these events, and we refer to them as dry‐air outbreaks. We also investigate the general atmospheric circulation pattern that favors their occurrence, which is associated with an intensified Arabian High at the north‐central portion of the Arabian Peninsula—a feature that seems to be an extension of the Siberian High. The analyses reveal that the westward winds over the northern Red Sea and the winter Shamal winds in the Persian Gulf are very likely to be part of the same subsynoptic‐scale feature. The second Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis indicates that the occurrence of westward wind events over the northern Red Sea has grown from 1980 to 2015, especially the frequency of large‐scale events, the cause of which is to be investigated. We hypothesize that dry‐air outbreaks may induce surface water mass transformation in the surface Red Sea Eastern Boundary Current and could represent a significant process for the oceanic thermohaline‐driven overturning circulation.

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“…In the Middle East, an accurate estimation of precipitation variations over space and time is of importance for a variety of reasons and for numerous applications. First, the region represents one of the most arid regions in the world, where the impacts of climate changes on a wide range of natural and human environments (e.g., agriculture, water resources, food production, health, biodiversity) and even political influences (Burke et al ., ; Smith and Vivekananda, ) are likely to be exacerbated (Evans, ; de Vries et al ., ; ). As such, an accurate quantification of possible impacts necessitates a realistic representation of spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial assessment of the performance of multiple high‐resolution satellite‐based precipitation data sets over the Middle East

Kenawy

McCabe

López‐Moreno

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of the performance of three globally high‐resolution remotely sensed products in replicating the main characteristics of rainfall over the Middle East, with special emphasis on extreme wet events. Specifically, we employed daily observational data from a network of rain gauges (N = 217), spanning the retrospective period 1998–2013 and covering six countries in the Middle East (i.e., Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Syria), against data derived from three global satellite‐based precipitation products: the Version 7 TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Multi‐satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 product (TRMM‐3B42), the Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). Alongside a range of conventional statistical error measures (e.g., bias, normalized root‐mean‐square error [nRMSE] and Spearman's rho correlation coefficient), this study also gives priority to evaluate the skill of these products in reproducing characteristics of extreme wet events (e.g., frequency, intensity, duration, onset, anomaly). Results demonstrate that TRMM‐3B42 generally performs well in estimating rainfall totals during the rainy season (ONDJFMA), with a mean bias of 0.05 mm, nRMSE of 0.15 mm, and Spearman's rho of 0.74 for the whole Middle East. In contrast, PERSIANN‐CDR and CMORPH‐BLD underestimate the observed rainfall. Importantly, TRMM‐3B42 outperforms other products in reproducing the frequency and intensity of the most extreme wet events, while PERSIANN‐CDR and CMORPH‐BLD fail to reproduce these key characteristics. Notably, all products perform poorly in reproducing the climatology of the anomalous wet events in the region, indicating that careful scrutiny must be warranted before using these products, particularly for hydrological modelling. Considering the daily resolution of these remotely sensed precipitation products and their reasonable spatial resolution (0.25 × 0.25°) in comparison to available in situ data over the Middle East, results of this work provide a solid scientific reference for national stakeholders and policy makers to decide on the most useful product for their specific applications (e.g., hydrological modelling, streamflow forecasts, water resources management, and hydrometeorological hazard assessment and mitigation).

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Identification of Tropical‐Extratropical Interactions and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East Based On Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport

Cited by 57 publications

References 118 publications

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns

Evaporative Implications of Dry‐Air Outbreaks Over the Northern Red Sea

Spatial assessment of the performance of multiple high‐resolution satellite‐based precipitation data sets over the Middle East

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