Identification of the effective water availability from streamflows in the Zerafshan river basin, Central Asia

Olsson, Oliver; Gaßmann, Matthias; Wegerich, Kai; Bauer, Melanie

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.042

Cited by 57 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The similar trends have also been identified in other river basins in Central Asia (Hagg et al, 2007;Olsson et al, 2010). The timing of the maximum streamflow will occur approximately one month earlier in the future than in the baseline period (Figs.…”

Section: Seasonal Runoffsupporting

confidence: 80%

Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia

Sun

Liu

et al. 2015

J. Arid Land

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Abstract:Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin (CRB), a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961-1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under three radiative forcing scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In this study, the period 1966-1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identified in the average annual runoff in glacier (-26.6% to -1.0%), snow (-21.4% to +1.1%) and streamflow (-27.7% to -6.6%) for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection. Most rivers originating from mountain regions are often referred to as "water towers" (Immerzeel et al., 2012). This is especially true for Central Asia where most rivers originate from the Tianshan Mountains (Sorg et al., 2012). In Central Asia, large amounts of water exist as snow/glacier in headwater regions of river basins and melt waters variably contribute to streamflow in the catchments. As snow/glacier is sensitive to climate change, its effect on streamflow under warming climatic conditions has raised significant interest in both the scientific community and decision-making bodies (Li et al., 2013).Observed changes in glacier/snow have been generally attributed to rising temperatures in recent decades. Cruz et al. (2007) reported a global temperature rise of 1-2°C in the last century. Studies also noted a temperature rise of 0.39°C/10a in Central Asia in 1979-2011 but with significant local heterogeneity LAND 2015 Vol. 7 No. 4 (Unger- Shayesteh et al., 2013;Hu et al., 2014). By analyzing changes in glacier area in Ala-Archa and Ak-Shirak massifs in the northern and central Tianshan Mountains, Aizen et al. (2007) noted that reduction in glacier cover in the peripher...

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Section: Seasonal Runoffsupporting

confidence: 80%

Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia

Sun

Liu

et al. 2015

J. Arid Land

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“…The Zerafshan River (average runoff 5.3 km 3 ; total length 741 km) originates in the northern Hissar Mountains in Tajikistan and flows towards the Bukhara Province (Olsson, Gassmann, Wegerich, & Bauer, 2010). The Zerafshan Basin can be divided into two parts: the upstream part, which is in Tajikistan; and the downstream part, in Uzbekistan.…”

Section: Case Study Of the Zerafshan And The Ferghana Valleysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting to hydrological/hydrographic boundaries: a comparative assessment of national policy implementation in the Zerafshan and Ferghana Valleys

Wegerich

2014

International Journal of Water Resources Development

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In the literature on the implementation of national policies there is an assumption that these get implemented uniformly within one country. Here, with a focus on the implementation of national policy on shifting from administrative to hydrological/ hydrographic principles of water management in the Zerafshan Valley and the Ferghana Valley in Uzbekistan, this assumption is questioned. The case study demonstrates that national policies are resisted by lower-level bureaucrats, leading to diverse, even contradictory, outcomes of the same policy. The vested interests of a multiplicity of bureaucracies, the power of individual bureaucrats, and the discretional power given to bureaucracies in interpreting national policy are responsible for the different outcomes. The article calls for more comparative assessments across different regions for a better understanding of policy implementation.

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“…Climate change has also affected hydrological systems of semi-desert area of Aral Sea, which in turn are affecting seasonal water availability for irrigation in the Aral Sea. Thus, it is reported [15] that recently the summer floods, which is necessary for irrigation in Uzbekistan is reduced in the last decades. Water shortage necessarily affecting hydro-economic sectors of the countries located in the disaster area, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.…”

Section: B Environment Of Tian Shan: Current Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin

Lemenkova¹

2013

"Environmental and Climate Technologies 2013" Conference Proceedings

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-The paper focuses on analysis of Central Asian hydroenergetic system and water usage in Tian Shan region. Tian Shan system is an important water resource in Central Asia: river waters are intensely taken for hydropower energy, urban systems, irrigation. But geopolitics in Tian Shan is difficult: it crosses five densely populated countries. The problem consists in water delivery between countries located in the highlands with excellent water supply (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and those located in valleys with water shortage (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan). The water use causes debates among these countries. Besides, global warming causes water deficit, which adds difficulties to hydroenergetics. A multidisciplinary analysis was performed in the article: water supply in Tian Shan, spatial distribution of hydroenergetic resources and effects of climate impact were analyzed.

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Identification of the effective water availability from streamflows in the Zerafshan river basin, Central Asia

Cited by 57 publications

References 17 publications

Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia

Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia

Shifting to hydrological/hydrographic boundaries: a comparative assessment of national policy implementation in the Zerafshan and Ferghana Valleys

Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin

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