Identification of Streamflow Changes across the Continental United States Using Variable Record Lengths

Tamaddun, Kazi Ali; Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

doi:10.3390/hydrology3020024

Cited by 55 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Similar findings have also been reported in the literature. For instance, Tamaddun et al [60] investigated changes in unimpaired streamflow measured at 600 USGS stations (including 40 in California) across the Continental United States at the annual and seasonal scales. They identified no significant trends in annual and spring streamflow volumes at any of those 40 California stations via the MKT method either with or without the pre-whitening procedure incorporated.…”

Section: Runoff Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

He¹,

Russo²,

Anderson³

et al. 2017

Hydrology

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This study presents a comprehensive trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and runoff extremes in the Central Valley of California from an operational perspective. California is prone to those extremes of which any changes could have long-lasting adverse impacts on the society, economy, and environment of the State. Available long-term operational datasets of 176 forecasting basins in six forecasting groups and inflow to 12 major water supply reservoirs are employed. A suite of nine precipitation indices and nine temperature indices derived from historical (water year 1949-2010) six-hourly precipitation and temperature data for these basins are investigated, along with nine indices based on daily unimpaired inflow to those 12 reservoirs in a slightly shorter period. Those indices include daily maximum precipitation, temperature, runoff, snowmelt, and others that are critical in informing decision making in water resources management. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test is applied with a trend-free pre-whitening procedure in identifying trends in these indices. Changes in empirical probability distributions of individual study indices in two equal sub-periods are also investigated. The results show decreasing number of cold nights, increasing number of warm nights, increasing maximum temperature, and increasing annual mean minimum temperature at about 60% of the study area. Changes in cold extremes are generally more pronounced than their counterparts in warm extremes, contributing to decreasing diurnal temperature ranges. In general, the driest and coldest Tulare forecasting group observes the most consistent changes among all six groups. Analysis of probability distributions of temperature indices in two sub-periods yields similar results. In contrast, changes in precipitation extremes are less consistent spatially and less significant in terms of change rate. Only four indices exhibit statistically significant changes in less than 10% of the study area. On the regional scale, only the American forecasting group shows significant decreasing trends in two indices including maximum six-hourly precipitation and simple daily intensity index. On the other hand, runoff exhibits strong resilience to the changes noticed in temperature and precipitation extremes. Only the most southern reservoir (Lake Isabella) shows significant earlier peak timing of snowmelt. Additional analysis on runoff indices using different trend analysis methods and different analysis periods also indicates limited changes in these runoff indices. Overall, these findings are meaningful in guiding reservoir operations and water resources planning and management practices. IntroductionClimatic and weather-induced hazards including excessive heat, flooding, and drought are often economically, environmentally, and societally disruptive [1][2][3]. Previous studies have suggested that such hazards are typically caused by changes in the frequency and intensity rather than the mean of hydro-climatic variables including precipita...

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Section: Runoff Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

He¹,

Russo²,

Anderson³

et al. 2017

Hydrology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Recent studies on climate change suggest a significant rise in the severity of extreme weather events over the next century [2][3][4][5]. In particular, intensified precipitation is expected to occur more frequently, leading to severe hydrologic consequences, such as a greater amount of flooding and erosion [6,7]. In the analysis of recorded rainfall time series in many regions, heavy rainfall events have indicated an increasing trend [8,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

2016

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Abstract:The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change entails more frequent and intense rainfall. As a result, urban water systems will be disproportionately affected by the climate change, especially in such urban areas as Las Vegas, which concentrates its population, infrastructure, and economic activity. Proper design and management of stormwater facilities are needed to attenuate the severe effects of extreme rainfall events. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is developing multiple high-resolution projected-climate data from different combinations of regional climate models and global climate models. The objective of this study was to evaluate existing stormwater facilities of a watershed within the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada by using a robust design method for the projected climate. The projected climate change was incorporated into the model at the 100 year return period with 6 h duration depths, using a statistical regionalization analysis method. Projection from different sets of climate model combinations varied substantially. Gridded reanalysis data were used to assess the performance of the climate models. An existing Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model was implemented using the projected change in standard design storm. Hydrological simulation using HEC-HMS showed exceedances of existing stormwater facilities that were designed under the assumption of stationarity design depth. Recognizing climate change and taking an immediate approach in assessing the city's vulnerability by using proper strategic planning would benefit the urban sector and improve the quality of life.

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“…The hydrologic region has multiple river basins along the coast with a total area of 721,520 square kilometers of drainage that ultimately discharges into: (a) the Atlantic Ocean within and between the states of Virginia and Florida; (b) the Gulf of Mexico within and between the states of Florida and Louisiana; and (c) the associated waters [15]. The study region has experienced rapid land use/land cover change [16][17][18][19]. The details of the changes are elaborated in the next section (Results and Discussion).…”

Section: Study Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the GCMs, the 5th and 95th percentile of precipitation changes range between −40% and 110% and temperature changes between −2 • C and 6 • C by 2099 ( Figure 7, Column 1). The causes for precipitation change are very complex [19]. The data analysis in the SEUS included the seven states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.…”

Section: Overview Of the Climate Change And Variability In The Seus Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies include the same seven states, while some had additions or exclusions of one or more states. There are three contributors to precipitation formation, i.e., atmospheric circulation dynamical systems, water vapor transport, and vertical thermal stability [19]. The warm/cold El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are characterized by colder and wetter/warmer and drier boreal winter and spring seasons in the SEUS, with the magnitudes of these anomalies, however, decrease as one moves northward within the SEUS [39].…”

Section: Overview Of the Climate Change And Variability In The Seus Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic Characteristics of Streamflow in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region during 1939–2016 and Conceptual Map of Potential Impacts

2018

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Streamflow is one the most important variables controlling and maintaining aquatic ecosystem integrity, diversity, and sustainability. This study identified and quantified changes in 34 hydrologic characteristics and parameters at 30 long term discharge stations in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region (Region 3) using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) variables. The southeastern United States (SEUS) is a biodiversity hotspot, and the region has experienced a number of rapid land use/land cover changes with multiple primary drivers. Studies in the SEUS have been mostly localized on specific rivers, reservoir catchments and/or species, but the overall region has not been assessed for the long-term period of 1939-2016 for multiple hydrologic characteristic parameters. The objectives of the study were to provide an overview of multiple river basins and 31 hydrologic characteristic parameters of streamflow in Region 3 for a longer period and to develop a conceptual map of impacts of selected stressors and changes in hydrology and climate in the SEUS. A seven step procedure was used to accomplish these objectively:Step 1: Download data from the 30 USGS gauging stations. Steps 2 and 3: Select and analyze the 31 IHA parameters using boxplots, scatter plots, and PDFs. Steps 4 and 5: Synthesize the drivers of changes and alterations and the various change points in streamflow in the literature.Step 6: Synthesize the climate of the SEUS in terms of temperature and precipitation changes.Step 7: Develop a conceptual map of impacts of selected stressors on hydrology using Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and IHA parameters. The 31 IHA parameters were analyzed. The meta-analysis of literature in the SEUS revealed the precipitation changes observed ranged from −30% to +35% and temperature changes from −2 • C to 6 • C by 2099. The fiftieth percentile of the Global Climate Models (GCM) predict no precipitation change and an increase in the temperature of 2.5 • C in the region by 2099. Among the GCMs, the 5th and 95th percentile of precipitation changes range between −40% and 110% and temperature changes between −2 • C and 6 • C by 2099. Meta-analysis of land use/land cover show the region has experienced changes. A number of rapid land use/land cover changes in 1957, 1970, and 1998 are some of the change points documented in the literature for precipitation and streamflow in the region. A conceptual map was developed to represent the impacts of selected drivers and the changes in hydrology and climate in the study region for three land use/land cover categories in three different periods.

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Identification of Streamflow Changes across the Continental United States Using Variable Record Lengths

Cited by 55 publications

References 60 publications

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

Changes in Extremes of Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff in California’s Central Valley During 1949–2010

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

Hydrologic Characteristics of Streamflow in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region during 1939–2016 and Conceptual Map of Potential Impacts

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