Identification of rainfall onset for meteorological use regarding to region in the Algerian highlands

Abstract

The data from several weather stations in Western Algeria show a semi-arid climate during last decades. The entire study region showed a great variability in the occurrences of the first and second rainy days in the year. This variability is associated with a positive trend, showing a continuous increasing aridity in the south Mediterranean and the late arrival of the rainy season is well marked. The rainy season in the north of Algeria, spreads from September to June. The origin of the rains differ according to the seasons. The rainfall from June to October is of localized stormy origin, whereas in winter, the rainfall comes from the classical atmospherically perturbations arriving from North or North West. This work objective was to give a definition of the rainy season onset and to show its inter - annual variability according to the Niño and Niña years. The El - Niño phenomenon by its positive and negative phases seems to affect the start of the rainy season. The variability of the rainfall onset indices is very significant. There is a relative stability of the rainy season length over the long term period. A significant delay in the precipitation onset was observed during certain years. A method to define rainy season onset based on daily rainfall data from a weather station in the Algerian highlands was proposed. This approach is based on a climatic point of view, using a frequency analysis of precipitation and dates of their first occurrence. It delays the first heavy rain day (20 mm) when La - Niña settles. If EL-Niño settles, the first heavy rain (20 mm) day will be earlier. These results will improve the probabilistic forecasts of the beginning of the rainy seasons, the cessation as well as the lengths. This work is a preliminary confirmation that the El-Niño phenomenon really affects the Mediterranean climate.

Changes and Variability in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season in the IGAD region of Eastern Africa

“…The study by Wainwright et al, (2019) inferred that rainfall decline over east Africa is due to late onset dates and earlier cessation leading to shortening of the rainy season. This shaded lights on some reasons behind the past and current rainfall trend, which indicated the decline was due to change and variability The de nitions of RODs, CDs and LRSs could lead to different characteristics even if one dataset is applied over a location (Benaichata et al, 2019). A study by (Gordon & Fitzpatrick, 2016) shows more than 18 different methods and thresholds for determining ROD, RCD and LRS in literature.…”