Identification of Distribution Characteristics and Epidemic Trends of Hepatitis E in Zhejiang Province, China from 2007 to 2012

Liu, Kui; Cai, Jian; Wang, Shan; Wu, Zhaofan; Li, Li; Jiang, Tao; Bin, Chen; Cai, Guanqiang; Jiang, Zhenggang; Chen, Yongdi; Wang, Zhengting; Zhu, Xuhui; Hu, Liuru; Gu, Hongtao; Jiang, Jianmin

doi:10.1038/srep25407

Cited by 23 publications

(28 citation statements)

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“…Spatial autocorrelation analysis. Spatial autocorrelation analysis is a spatial method used to describe the spatial autocorrelation association based on the locations of study regions 34,35 , global and local Moran's I were used to identify whether the significant spatial autocorrelation regions of AHC in Chongqing. In general, they are separated into the "global" and "local" categories.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China

Jing

Zhao²,

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Chongqing is one of the five provinces in China that has the highest incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC). Data of AHC cases from 2004 to 2018 were obtained from National Notifiable Diseases Reporting Information System (NNDRIS). Descriptive statistical methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics; incidence maps were used to reflect incidence trends in each district; spatial autocorrelation was used to identify hotspot regions and spatiotemporal patterns of AHC outbreaks; spatiotemporal scan were conducted to identify AHC clusters. A total of 30,686 cases were reported with an annual incidence of 7.04 per 100,000. The incidence rates were high in 2007 and 2014, and large epidemics were observed in 2010 with the seasonal peak in September. Individuals aged 10-19 years, males, students and farmers were the prime high-risk groups. Except for 2012 and 2013, the spatial distribution of AHC did not exhibit significant global spatial autocorrelation. Local indicators of spatial association showed that the high-risk regions are Chengkou and Wuxi. The spatiotemporal scan indicated that all clusters occurred in September 2010, and the high-incidence clusters were mainly distributed in the northeast of Chongqing. The results could assist public health agencies to consider effective preventive measures based on epidemiological factors and spatiotemporal clusters in different regions. Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is a highly infectious viral disease caused by enterovirus 70 (EV70), coxsackievirus A24 variant (CA24v), or adenoviruses 1,2. It is characterized by rapid onset of symptoms, quick dissemination and short incubation period 3. The main manifestations of AHC are bilateral eye pain, eyelid swelling, conjunctival congestion, keratitis, foreign body sensation and increased ocular secretions 4. Generally, the majority of patients exhibit obvious symptoms but good prognosis. A small number of patients will rapidly develop systemic symptoms such as fever, fatigue and limb pain. A few patients develop serious complications and fatal infections 5. Since it was first reported in Ghana in 1969 6 , AHC has seen several periodic outbreaks around the world 7 , mainly in Asia, Africa and Latin America 4. The first outbreak of AHC in China was reported in Hong Kong in 1971 8. At present, it has spread to all provinces and cities, including some remote areas 9. From 2005 to 2012, the reported incidence of AHC in China was 4.12 per 100,000, and Guangxi, Guangdong, Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei were ranked as the top 5 incidence provinces 10. Currently, AHC is still an important public health problem in China 11 , which is worth exploring and studying. Most of the previous studies on AHC focused on the epidemiological and etiological characteristics 12. However, the research on the spatial and temporal characteristics of AHC was still scarce. The geographical information system (GIS) has been widely used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of diseases, helping to monitor and prevent...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China

Jing

Zhao²,

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Spatial analysis was used to identify the clustering regions and observe geographic variation [ 18 , 19 ]. Global Moran’s I of reported TB cases was computed to detect the spatial clustering pattern.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal characteristics and the epidemiology of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2017 by the nationwide surveillance system

et al. 2020

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Background China has always been one of the countries with the most serious Tuberculosis epidemic in the world. Our study was to observe the Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of Tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2017 with Joinpoint regression analysis, Seasonal Autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, geographic cluster, and multivariate time series model. Methods The data of TB from January 2004 to December 2017 were obtained from the notifiable infectious disease reporting system supplied by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence trend of TB was observed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. The Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the monthly incidence. Geographic clusters was employed to analyze the spatial autocorrelation. The relative importance component of TB was detected by the multivariate time series model. Results We included 13,991,850 TB cases from January 2004 to December 2017, with a yearly average morbidity of 999,417 cases. The final selected model was the 0 Joinpoint model ( P = 0.0001) with an annual average percent change (AAPC) of − 3.3 (95% CI: − 4.3 to − 2.2, P < 0.001). A seasonality was observed across the 14 years, and the seasonal peaks were in January and March every year. The best SARIMA model was (0, 1, 1) X (0, 1, 1) 12 which can be written as (1-B) (1-B 12 ) X t = (1–0.42349B) (1–0.43338B 12 ) ε t , with a minimum AIC (880.5) and SBC (886.4). The predicted value and the original incidence data of 2017 were well matched. The MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the modelling performance were 201.76, 14.2, 8.4 and 0.06, respectively. The provinces with a high incidence were located in the northwest (Xinjiang, Tibet) and south (Guangxi, Guizhou, Hainan) of China. The hotspot of TB transmission was mainly located at southern region of China from 2004 to 2008, including Hainan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing, which disappeared in the later years. The autoregressive component had a leading role in the incidence of TB which accounted for 81.5–84.5% of the patients on average. The endemic component was about twice as large in the western provinces as the average while the spatial-temporal component was less important there. Most of the high incidences (> 70 cases per 100,000) were influenced by the autoregressive component for the past 14 years. Conclusion In a word, China still has a high TB incidence. However, the incidence rate of TB was significantly decreasing from 2004 to 2017 in China. Seasonal peaks were in January and March every year. Obvious geographical clusters were observed in Tibet and Xinjiang Province. The relative importance component of TB driving transmission was distinguishe...

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“…Spatial analysis was applied to describe geographic variation and to detect the clustering regions 19 . A global and local autocorrelation analysis using the Moran’s I was carried out to identify spatial autocorrelations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China

Wang

Xue

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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Zhejiang Province is one of the six provinces in China that has the highest incidence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Data on HFRS cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2007 to July 2017 were obtained from the China Information Network System of Disease Prevention and Control. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to observe the trend of the incidence rate of HFRS. The monthly incidence rate was predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to detect geographic clusters. A multivariate time series model was employed to analyze heterogeneous transmission of HFRS. There were a total of 4,836 HFRS cases, with 15 fatal cases reported in Zhejiang Province, China in the last decade. Results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the modelling performance and the forecasting performance of the ARIMA model were 27.53% and 16.29%, respectively. Male farmers and middle-aged patients account for the majority of the patient population. There were 54 high-high clusters and 1 high-low cluster identified at the county level. The random effect variance of the autoregressive component is 0.33; the spatio-temporal component is 1.30; and the endemic component is 2.45. According to the results, there was obvious spatial heterogeneity in the endemic component and spatio-temporal component but little spatial heterogeneity in the autoregressive component. A significant decreasing trend in the incidence rate was identified, and obvious clusters were discovered. Spatial heterogeneity in the factors driving HFRS transmission was discovered, which suggested that a targeted preventive effort should be considered in different districts based on their own main factors that contribute to the epidemics.

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Identification of Distribution Characteristics and Epidemic Trends of Hepatitis E in Zhejiang Province, China from 2007 to 2012

Cited by 23 publications

References 50 publications

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China

Spatiotemporal characteristics and the epidemiology of tuberculosis in China from 2004 to 2017 by the nationwide surveillance system

Spatial-temporal characteristics and the epidemiology of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2007 to 2016 in Zhejiang Province, China

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