Identification of Differences in the Seasonality of the Developer and Individual Housing Market as a Basis for Its Sustainable Development

Abstract

This article identifies seasonality profiles for three stages of housing construction. The profiles were determined as average monthly values obtained for permits issued for the construction of new apartments, for apartments whose construction has begun, and for apartments put into operation. The research process showed that there are differences in seasonality profiles between investments carried out by individual investors and those who build apartments for sale or rent. The research clearly showed that the development of reports and analyses for the housing market should include a breakdown of the market for the activities of individual developers as well as those operating as investments. Unfortunately, at present, reports on the real estate market are developed in total terms, which significantly reduces their utilitarian application. Taking into account the recommendations of the research will allow for sustainable development of the housing market in such a way that the market will strengthen its resilience to the occurrence of cyclical fluctuations, among other things.

The housing market in Poland during the Covid-19 pandemic

“…3 clearly shows a regularity concerning an increase in the number of dwellings completed towards the end of a given year (November-December) and a decrease in this number at the beginning of the following year. This demonstrates the seasonality of investment and construction activity [17]. Despite the outbreak of Covid-19, the Polish housing market did not experience a significant downturn.…”

“…Figure 4 shows how atypical 2020 was compared to the year before and the year after in terms of the number of housing units completed. It is worth noting that in the first half of 2020, there was a shortage of construction materials, especially insulation materials (Styrofoam) [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. This prevented the commissioning of many facilities.…”

Time Series Prediction For The Housing Construction Market With The Use Of NARNet

“…It should be noted, however, that the real estate market situation in Poland is changing dynamically and can vary from region to region. The housing construction market is characterized by high seasonality, determined, among other things, by the seasons of the year and related weather conditions (Frącz et al 2023;Mach et al 2021). At the same time, there is a great need to predict the actual situation in this market and to make predictions over different time horizons for its key components.…”