Identification and trend analysis of homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asia monsoon region

Awan, Jehangir Ashraf; Bae, Deg‐Hyo; Kim, Kyung Joong

doi:10.1002/joc.4066

Cited by 40 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Drawn from a number of valid stations, it contains over 2.3 to 4.5 times the data available through the Global Telecommunication System network. The data has been used in several applications such as water resource management, flood analysis, and rainfall trends analysis [17][18][19]. The 151 grids at resolution of 0.5° over the present study area have been used in an analysis of rainfall trends as shown in Figure 1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Seasonal Distribution of Climatological Precipitation over the Middle of the Indochina Peninsula

Mahavik

2017

App. Envi. Res.

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Rainfall intensity and frequency are important parameters in agricultural development and water resource management. The middle of the Indochina peninsula climate is characterized by rainfall variability associated with complex terrains. The present study focuses on spatial seasonal extreme precipitation trends over the middle of the Indochina Peninsula for the 30 year period from 1978-2007. Daily gridded precipitation data obtained at 0.5° horizontal grid resolution from APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources) was used to detect the spatial trends with the use of the Man-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach. Extreme precipitation indices were selected from the WMO–CCL/CLIVAR list of extreme precipitation indices focusing on intensity and frequency. The study shows a consistently increasing upward trend at 10.04 dfrom the WDAY index. In seasonal analysis, the pre-monsoon trend shows a significant upward trend in the PRCTOT index, while the WDAY index for pre-monsoon season has the highest correlation coefficient in downward trend. Spatial analysis of extreme precipitation indices shows that the PRCTOT index of the pre-monsoon season has the largest percentage change in significant upward trend over the northern Basins that are consistent with MAX and Mean but not for WDAY. In addition, the inter-annual relationship between the Oceanic Nino Index and PRCTOT is shown in relation with the La Niña phase for both April and May.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Seasonal Distribution of Climatological Precipitation over the Middle of the Indochina Peninsula

Mahavik

2017

App. Envi. Res.

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“…Locations of the nine extraordinary storms and the flood control project site in the homogeneous rainfall regions delineated by Awan et al ., [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Usually, rainfall characteristics are the main concerns for delineating homogeneous regions for PMP estimation; thus, homogeneous rainfall regions are the focus in this study. Regionalization work has been performed by many hydrologists (e.g., Tennant and Hewitson, 2002;Modarres, 2006;Ngongondo et al, 2011;Awan et al, 2015;Chavan and Srinivas, 2017), and statistical methods, such as cluster analysis, are widely used in delineating homogeneous regions.…”

Section: St Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As seen in Table 2, the maximum value 1,026.2 mm was chosen as the result for PMP ST . These extraordinary storms all occurred in homogeneous rainfall region #2 delineated by Awan et al (2015) (see Figure 4). Finally, the estimated 24-hr PMP using the ST method was recommended in the study for the purpose of safety, and more details can be found in the Discussion.…”

Section: Estimation Of 24-hr Pmpmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An improved moisture and wind maximization method for probable maximum precipitation estimation and its application to a small catchment in China

Zhou

Liang

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The probable maximum flood (PMF) is the highest design criterion for major hydraulic projects whose failure might cause severe loss of life and property. The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the corresponding extreme design rainfall, which is defined as the theoretically greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration over a particular area under modern meteorological conditions. The moisture and wind maximization (MWM) method is widely used in deriving 24‐hr PMP. However, variables in MWM factor (e.g., maximum precipitable water and wind speed) are collected from full study durations regardless of their respective main moisture inflow directions in each year. This issue could lead to higher PMP estimates which could lead to costs in the construction of hydraulic structures. To alleviate this possible problem, an improved moisture and wind maximization (IMWM) approach is proposed based on the concept of a “wind rose diagram”, data (e.g., rainfall, wind speed, dew point) are grouped according to the main moisture inflow directions of a study catchment. Analysis shows the IMWM approach has the potential to provide lower PMPs, which would have economic implications for hydraulic designs. The storm transposition approach is applied for safety, extraordinary storms occurring in the homogeneous rainfall region are transposed to a study catchment after being maximized by the IMWM method. In addition, statistical methods, including storm formulation, trend analysis and hydrological frequency analysis, are used for deriving short‐duration PMPs. The Nash instantaneous unit hydrograph coupled with regional empirical formulas is then applied to estimate PMFs. As an example, PMP/PMF estimation approaches are applied to an important flood control project located in a small ungauged catchment of China. The study can provide a scientific basis for the construction of the study project as well as a reference for similar high‐hazard projects.

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“…Lin et al (2013) revealed decadal variability Figure 1. Seven homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asian monsoon region (Awan et al, 2015). of the East Asian summer monsoon during 1880-2004 with weakened trends during 1880-1906, 1921-1936, and 1960-2004, and enhanced trends during 1906-1921and 1936-1960, several studies reported the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon since the late 1970s that caused significant changes in the rainfall patterns over the region (Huijun, 2001;Gong and Ho, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Features and interdecadal variability of droughts in the homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asian monsoon region

Awan

Bae

2015

Int. J. Climatol.

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Features and interdecadal variability of droughts were assessed over the East Asian monsoon region (20 ∘ -50 ∘ N, 103 ∘ -149 ∘ E) using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the gridded rainfall data set at 0.5 ∘ resolution. To assess the spatial and temporal patterns of droughts, seven homogeneous rainfall zones that exhibit unique rainfall regimes and long-term variability over the region were used. The statistical analysis method known as the theory of runs was used to identify and characterize drought events. A run was defined as a portion of SPI drought series in which all values were below the selected threshold level. Run-length and run-sum were used to define the drought duration and drought severity, respectively. The study revealed unique drying and wetting patterns for different zones in the region. Interdecadal analysis of droughts over the past three decades revealed a significant increase in drought duration and severity in the low rainfall zones, whereas a significant decrease appeared in the high rainfall zones. In particular, the duration and severity dwindled to zero with no major drought event over the eastern and the East Sea coastal region of Japan during the last decade (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007). These patterns pose serious threats of increasing droughts in the low rainfall zones and flooding in the high rainfall zones. The spectral analysis, using the Fast Fourier Transform, was performed to identify the cyclic patterns of SPI time series in each zone, which revealed dominant cycles of 15, 7.5, and 3.4 years in the different zones. These results suggest the possible influence of interdecadal Pacific Oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillations on droughts in the region, although these relations remain a challenging task.

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Identification and trend analysis of homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asia monsoon region

Cited by 40 publications

References 30 publications

Spatial Seasonal Distribution of Climatological Precipitation over the Middle of the Indochina Peninsula

Spatial Seasonal Distribution of Climatological Precipitation over the Middle of the Indochina Peninsula

An improved moisture and wind maximization method for probable maximum precipitation estimation and its application to a small catchment in China

Features and interdecadal variability of droughts in the homogeneous rainfall zones over the East Asian monsoon region

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