Ideas and developments in importance measures and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis

Vaurio, J.K.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2009.08.006

Cited by 55 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Although this notion may sound familiar to the reader, to our knowledge, the presentation we give here is original and completes an interpretation sketched by Vaurio in Ref. [22].…”

Section: Critical Statessupporting

confidence: 69%

On the extension of Importance Measures to complex components

Dutuit

Rauzy

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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a b s t r a c t Importance Measures are indicators of the risk significance of the components of a system. They are widely used in various applications of Probabilistic Safety Analyses, off-line and on-line, in decision making for preventive and corrective purposes, as well as to rank components according to their contribution to the global risk. They are primarily defined for the case the support model is a coherent fault tree and failures of components are described by basic events of this fault tree.In this article, we study their extension to complex components, i.e. components whose failures are modeled by a gate rather than just a basic event. Although quite natural, such an extension has not received much attention in the literature. We show that it raises a number of problems. The Birnbaum Importance Measure and the notion of Critical States concentrate these difficulties. We present alternative solutions for the extension of these notions. We discuss their respective advantages and drawbacks.This article gives a new point of view on the mathematical foundations of Importance Measures and helps us to clarify their physical meaning.

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“…Although this notion may sound familiar to the reader, to our knowledge, the presentation we give here is original and completes an interpretation sketched by Vaurio in Ref. [22].…”

Section: Critical Statessupporting

confidence: 69%

On the extension of Importance Measures to complex components

Dutuit

Rauzy

2015

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…Overviews of some of the most used importance measures are available in many books and papers [14,20,22].…”

Section: Importance Measures That Consider Costs Of Componentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new approach for determining the most important system components and the budget-constrained system reliability improvement

Pavlović¹,

Makajić-Nikolić²,

Vujošević³

2017

EiN

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Article citation info:ponents' reliability on the overall system reliability is usually done by using importance measures. The concept of importance measures, originally introduced by Birnbaum [2] and Vesely [23], has been significantly changed and improved over time. Structural and probabilistic importance measures are used most often, but a small number of importance measures that take into account the costs of improving the reliability of the individual components have also been developed over the last few years [12,24]. A common feature of the majority of importance measures is that component's importance to the system functioning and failure is determined based on the calculated value of a chosen importance measure [27]. Therefore, the general procedure IntroductionImprovement of the reliability of a complex system, besides providing redundancy of components, is achieved by improving the reliability of the individual components that have the greatest impact on the overall reliability of the system. In this paper, we consider a complex system as a system with multiple interactions between many different components [15] in which the behavior of the system cannot be easily and directly induced from the behavior of its components [3]. Within the context of reliability, main characteristics of a complex system are: large number of components, cut sets, path sets or components' states dependencies [7]. Analysis of the impact of the com- PAvlović P, MAkAjić-Nikolić D, vujošević M. A new approach for determining the most important system components and the budget-constrained system reliability improvement. eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc -Maintenance and Reliability 2017; 19 (3): 413-419, http:// dx the number of the most important components which should be prevented is often limited due to the available budget. Using pre-known minimal cut sets, a mathematical model based on the Budgeted Maximum Coverage Problem is proposed. By its optimization, the simultaneous determination of all of the most important components whose total expenses do not exceed the limited overall budget is achieved. The new approach was tested by a series of experiments conducted over a set of test examples. The results of the experiments were compared with the results obtained using two commonly used cost importance measures. Keywords

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“…Risk assessment is an important part of risk management, which is a tool designed to support all aspects of decision-making from the beginning to the end of a process. Various risk assessment tools have been widely used in tunnel and underground engineering, including event tree analysis [6], fault tree analysis [7], probabilistic risk analysis [8,9], the analytical hierarchy process [10], multicriteria verbal analysis [11], Grey systems [12], Bayesian networks [13], fuzzy sets [14], and Monte Carlo simulations [15,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Tunnel and Underground Engineering

Xia

Xiong

Dong

et al. 2017

Entropy

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Abstract:The impact of uncertainty on risk assessment and decision-making is increasingly being prioritized, especially for large geotechnical projects such as tunnels, where uncertainty is often the main source of risk. Epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced, is the focus of attention. In this study, the existing entropy-risk decision model is first discussed and analyzed, and its deficiencies are improved upon and overcome. Then, this study addresses the fact that existing studies only consider parameter uncertainty and ignore the influence of the model uncertainty. Here, focus is on the issue of model uncertainty and differences in risk consciousness with different decision-makers. The utility theory is introduced in the model. Finally, a risk decision model is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis and the tolerance cost, which can improve decision-making efficiency. This research can provide guidance or reference for the evaluation and decision-making of complex systems engineering problems, and indicate a direction for further research of risk assessment and decision-making issues.

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Ideas and developments in importance measures and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis

Cited by 55 publications

References 13 publications

On the extension of Importance Measures to complex components

On the extension of Importance Measures to complex components

A new approach for determining the most important system components and the budget-constrained system reliability improvement

Risk Assessment and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Tunnel and Underground Engineering

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