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ABSTRACTWe contribute to the role of telecommunications infrastructure on economic growth in three ways. We separately examine fixed-line and mobile telephone subscription levels. We compare results across periods and regions that differ by the level of development. In addition, we develop a method designed to address endogeneity of telecommunications with respect to growth. We find that mobile services contribute much more to growth but that the effect diminishes as the provincial economy develops more.Key Words: Growth, Mobile Phone, China JEL Codes: O4, L96 2
IntroductionAdvances in telecommunications have been found to contribute significantly to economic growth. But the effects on growth are thought to depend on the particular telecommunications technologies and on a country's level of development. Historically, growing fixed-line subscribership had been associated with economic growth. However, mobile telephone service is often the preferred mode of access for consumers, especially in developing countries. As a consequence economic growth has recently been more often associated with rapid mobile takeup rates while fixed-line take-up rates remained flat. During these infrastructure build-outs, it is not clear how the two technologies have interacted with each other. Moreover, it is difficult to determine to what extent either access mode is a cause of growth or a consequence of it. While much of the existing literature has tackled one or two of these issues in isolation, none has integrated all of these features into a single analysis.We take advantage of features of the Chinese experience from 1991 to 1010 to uncover some of these subtleties. This period represents a relatively compressed timespan during which telecommunications subscription grew enormously (see Figure 1). China went from a telephone subscription rate of less than 1% to nearly two-thirds. This rapid diffusion occurred during a period of liberalization of the Chinese telecomm...