Ice Thickness and Bed Elevation of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields

Millan, Romain; Rignot, Eric; Rivera, Andrés; Martineau, Valentin; Mouginot, J.; Zamora, Rodrigo; Uribe, José Darío; Lenzano, G.; Fleurian, Basile de; Li, Xiaojian; Gim, Y.; Kirchner, D. L.

doi:10.1029/2019gl082485

Cited by 40 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(105 reference statements)

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“…The nearest study object to the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap is the Northern Patagonian Icefield for which until 2100 an ice mass loss of 592 Gt has been projected under the A1B scenario which is comparable to the RCP6.0 scenario, and therefore between our results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Schaefer et al, 2013). Relating this ice loss to more recent estimates of total ice mass (Carrivick et al, 2016;Millan et al, 2019), around 50% of the ice mass would have disappeared. However, these simulations were performed on a fixed geometry, and therefore considered only changes in SMB, making it difficult to compare their results to ours.…”

Section: Global Context Of Glacier Declinesupporting

confidence: 65%

21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

Scheiter¹,

Schaefer²,

Flández³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Glaciers and ice caps are thinning and retreating along the entire Andes ridge, and drivers of this mass loss vary between the different climate zones. The southern part of the Andes (Wet Andes) has the highest abundance of glaciers in number and size, and a proper understanding of ice dynamics is important to assess their evolution. In this contribution, we apply the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in the Chilean Lake District (40° S, 72° W, Wet Andes) to reproduce its current state and to project its evolution until the end of the 21st century under different global warming scenarios. First, we create a model spin-up using surface mass balance data observed on the south-eastern catchment, extrapolating them to the whole ice cap using an exposition-dependent parameterization. This spin-up is able to reproduce the most important present-day glacier features. Based on the spin-up, we then run the model 80 years into the future, forced by projected surface temperature anomalies from different global circulation models under different radiative pathway scenarios to obtain estimates of the ice cap's state by the end of the 21st century. The mean projected ice volume losses are 25 ± 19 % (RCP2.6), 64 ± 14 % (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 3 % (RCP8.5) with respect to the ice volume estimated by radio-echo sounding data from 2013. We estimate the uncertainty of our projections based on the spread of the results when forcing with different global climate models and on the uncertainty associated with the variation of the equilibrium line altitude with temperature change. Considering our results, we project an considerable deglaciation of the Chilean Lake District by the end of the 21st century.

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Section: Global Context Of Glacier Declinesupporting

confidence: 65%

21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

Scheiter¹,

Schaefer²,

Flández³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Gravity methods (e.g., Gourlet et al, 2016) offer one option to overcome this limitation as they have no limits in ice thickness determinations, but they need to be validated and controlled by more accurate methods, such as radar. This combined approach has been applied in Patagonia (Millan et al, 2019), resulting in an improved ice thickness distribution coverage and the first comprehensive subglacial topography of the whole NPI and the northern part of the SPI.…”

Section: Recent Glacier Changes and Ice Dynamics In The Wet Andesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of the Current State and Recent Changes of the Andean Cryosphere

et al. 2020

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The Andes Cordillera contains the most diverse cryosphere on Earth, including extensive areas covered by seasonal snow, numerous tropical and extratropical glaciers, and many mountain permafrost landforms. Here, we review some recent advances in the study of the main components of the cryosphere in the Andes, and discuss the changes observed in the seasonal snow and permanent ice masses of this region over the past decades. The open access and increasing availability of remote sensing products has produced a substantial improvement in our understanding of the current state and recent changes of the Andean cryosphere, allowing an unprecedented detail in their identification and monitoring at local and regional scales. Analyses of snow cover maps has allowed the identification of seasonal patterns and long term trends in snow accumulation for most of the Andes, with some sectors in central Chile and central-western Argentina showing a clear decline in snowfall and snow persistence since 2010. This recent shortage of mountain snow has caused an extended, severe drought that is unprecedented in the hydrological and climatological records from this region. Together with data from global glacier inventories, detailed inventories at local/regional scales are now also freely available, providing important new information for glaciological, hydrological, and climatological assessments in different sectors of the Andes. Numerous studies largely based on field measurements and/or remote sensing techniques have documented the recent glacier shrinkage throughout the Andes. This observed ice mass loss has put Andean glaciers among the highest contributors to sea level rise per unit area. Other recent studies have focused on rock glaciers, showing that in extensive semi-arid sectors of the Andes these mountain permafrost features contain large reserves of freshwater and may play a crucial role as future climate becomes warmer and drier in this region. Many relevant issues remain to be investigated, however, including an improved estimation of ice volumes at local scales, and detailed assessments of the hydrological significance of the different components of the cryosphere in Andean river basins. The impacts of future climate changes on the Andean cryosphere also need to be studied in more detail, considering the contrasting

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“…These measurements were extended in 2013 to within a few hundred metres from the glacier front position because ice melange precluded a closer approach to the ice front (Moffat, 2014). Upstream the present glacier front position the subglacial topography was mapped by a combination of radar and aerial gravimetry data collected in recent years (Millan and others, 2019).…”

Section: Fjord Bathymetrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent ice dynamics and mass balance of Jorge Montt Glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

et al. 2019

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The Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) withdrawal in recent decades shows contrasting behaviours between adjacent basins. One of the basins with highest volumetric losses is located at northernmost SPI. We refer to Jorge Montt tidewater glacier (48° 30′S/73° 30′W, 445 km2 in 2018), which retreated 2.7 km between 2011 and 2018 and thinned at rates of up to 21 m a−1 over this period. Based on the retreat record, remote-sensing imagery, field data, a mass-balance model and a calving parameterisation, we attempted to differentiate climatic-induced changes (i.e. surface mass balance) and dynamic responses (i.e. calving fluxes). The surface mass balance reached −4.15 km3 w.e. a−1 between 2012 and 2017. When frontal ablation is included, the net mass balance is −17.79 km3 w.e. a−1. This represents a change of trend compared with modelling estimations of positive surface mass balance prior to 2010. This shift is attributed to higher ablation rates given that accumulation is known to have increased between 1980 and 2015. The available evidence, therefore, indicates that frontal ablation is the main factor, supported by observed rates at Jorge Montt as high as 3.81 km3 w.e. a−1 in 2015, with ice velocities peaking at 11 km a−1.

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Ice Thickness and Bed Elevation of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields

Cited by 40 publications

References 48 publications

21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

A Review of the Current State and Recent Changes of the Andean Cryosphere

Recent ice dynamics and mass balance of Jorge Montt Glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

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