Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C?

Screen, James A.; Williamson, Daniel

doi:10.1038/nclimate3248

Cited by 54 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…These estimates cover the range of findings by Rosenblum and Eisenman (2016) and Screen and Williamson (2017). There is substantial observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice sensitivity for a given degree of global warming.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

“…This translates to a global warming of about 1.8 ∘ C relative to preindustrial levels. Screen and Williamson (2017) conclude that the 2 ∘ C global warming target might be "insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic." Both these estimates lie within the range of observational uncertainty that we have identified here.…”

Section: 1002/2017gl076159mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While previous studies of future sea ice evolution are mainly limited to annual mean or summer months (e.g., Mahlstein & Knutti, 2012;Notz & Stroeve, 2016;Rosenblum & Eisenman, 2016;Screen & Williamson, 2017), we give, for different levels of global warming, a complete annual cycle of Arctic sea ice. Using a very large ensemble of simulations, we further estimate its uncertainty due to internal variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

Niederdrenk

Notz

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high‐sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low‐sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: 1002/2017gl076159mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

Niederdrenk

Notz

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Estimates from model simulations that either capture the observed sensitivity or have been bias-corrected, result in similar estimates [36, 39, 42, 43]. Because of the robust relationship between sea-ice coverage and global-mean temperature, the time scale for establishing a given warming is irrelevant.…”

Section: The Impact Of External Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean

Notz

Stroeve

2018

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of ReviewThe observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.Recent FindingsThe future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ∘C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt.SummaryThe Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced.

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“…These levels are 1.68 • C for GMT M17 and 1.71 • C for GMT blend−mask (see table 2). Several highly vulnerable systems such as tropical coral reefs (Schleussner et al 2016a) or Arctic sea-ice (Screen and Williamson 2017) are very sensitive to small warming increments. Also extreme weather indicators have been found to robustly increase with increasing GMT SAT (Seneviratne et al 2016) and threshold based indices even in a non-linear fashion .…”

Section: Gmt Blendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

Pfleiderer

Schleußner

Mengel

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 • C for a warming of 1.5 • C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

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Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C?

Cited by 54 publications

References 7 publications

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

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