Ice-avalanche scenario elaboration and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513, Peru

Compiling an Inventory of Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings and Potential New Lakes in De-Glaciating Areas of the Peruvian Andes: Approach, First Results, and Perspectives for Adaptation to Climate Change

“…A corresponding priority list could then be derived for further and more detailed investigations such as field measurements and more complex modelling of potentially dangerous processes and process chains. In critical cases, the assessment of hazard potentials and risks can be done with sophisticated model chains [45][46][47][48]. Such further steps and improvements necessitate better data, especially higher-resolution DEMs, and continued monitoring, mainly with high-resolution remote sensing, of glacier changes, corresponding acceleration trends, and the detailed formation of new lakes.…”

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

“…Multi‐hazard contexts have been increasingly considered by the scientific communities in the past years, both on a conceptual level (Kappes et al ., ), and – particularly for process chains – on the level of event back‐calculation by means of computer simulations (Schneider et al ., ). Recent studies have analyzed and quantified the error range involved when simulating process chains due to limited physical understanding, limited capabilities of current models at process boundaries, and associated uncertainties concerning the surrounding surface topography, material and mass flow parameters and characteristics (Westoby et al ., ; Schaub et al ., ). A particular challenge concerns the coupling of different simulation models, or the integration of different cascading mass flow processes in one integrated model.…”

“…Using r.avaflow allows back‐calculating complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains in an empirically adequate way. In contrast to most earlier approaches (Schneider et al ., ; Schaub et al ., ; Somos‐Valenzuela et al ., ), r.avaflow supports a continuous simulation across the boundaries of the individual components of the process chain. Considering this a major step forward, we note that based on the present study there still remain important limitations for the predictive application of the model to possible future process chains for the following reasons: Acknowledging that the uncertainties in the initial conditions (release mass, water content) and key flow parameters are to some extent aleatoric – particularly with regard to their spatial pattern – we depend on well‐founded empirical adequacy.…”

“…As shown in recent studies a critical challenge is the downstream propagation of increasing uncertainties of the parameter space, i.e. the uncertainties of initial landslide characteristics substantially increase downstream because of accumulating uncertainties at each process boundary (Schaub et al ., ).…”

Glacial lake outburst flood hazard assessment by satellite Earth observation in the Himalayas (Chomolhari area, Bhutan)

“…Haeberli, 1983;Huggel et al, 2004;Haeberli et al, 2001), the Andes (e.g. Schneider et al, 2014;Schaub et al, 2015;Frey et al, 2016) and the Himalayas (e.g. Budhathoki et al, 2010;Haemmig et al, 2014) in the last years.…”